Jeffrey P. Snider Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Chief Investment Strategist at Alhambra Investment Partners LLC
Contributor's Links: Alhambra Investment Partners

As Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheads the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambra’s client base.

Jeff joined Atlantic Capital Management, Inc., in Buffalo, NY, as an intern while completing ... more

Articles

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A Rough Sketch For Hong Kong, China, Maybe A Lot More
What we know about what’s going on in Hong Kong is limited. That’s a shame because I have no doubt what has been transpiring is important for a lot more than Hong Kong and the short run. The connections are too obvious for it to run any other way.
The Home Builder Rationalization
Home construction rebounded in January 2018, though that may have been nothing more than statistical noise. Total permits filed to build new residential structures totaled 1.396 million (SAAR) last month, up from a revised 1.300 million in December.
Escalation(s) TIC
According to the US Treasury Department’s Treasury International Capital report, foreign private holders of UST’s had been selling them steadily in the last quarter of last year.
US IP On The Other Side Of Harvey And Irma
Industrial Production in the US was revised to a lower level for December 2017, and then was slightly lower still in the first estimates for January 2018. Year-over-year, IP was up 3.7%.
Asian Markets: Escalation(s)
With the Shanghai stock exchange closed starting today for Lunar New Year’s Eve, its composite stock price index will have to remain much closer to the bottom of the recent sell-off.
Real Weekly Earnings Down Since 2015, But The Economy Is Hot Anyway?
The US CPI was lower for the second consecutive month, but since it wasn’t as low as some “analysts” were anticipating, that counts, apparently, as “hot” and in some places “blistering” inflation.
The Other Side Of Harvey And Irma
Retail Sales in January 2018 rose by a little over 5% year-over-year. That followed sharp downward revisions to December, where in the biggest retail month of any calendar sales are now thought to have gained just 3.7%.
So, Where Is It?
The inflationary boom narrative is one without any inflation. The latest CPI statistics merely confirm that nothing has changed.
SLOOS Answers The Boom
The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) is a quarterly examination querying bank lending practices and views. The two main focuses of SLOOS are lending standards and bank officer perceptions about demand for lending.
Velocity Of Irrelevancy
The current (small) rise in velocity is once more simple mathematics. Nominal output is slightly higher over the past few quarters while the Fed’s balance sheet, particularly the leftovers in bank reserves, is generally lower since 2014’s taper.
A Boom Of Hysteria
Inflation is now blamed for everything good and bad. Market prices are especially susceptible so that even the rocky stock market over the past few weeks is attributed to the rising yields.
COT Black, Green, And Blue; Extremes But Not Extremes
There is extreme positioning in all the key markets. Each one is pulled further and further toward “reflation”, too, or in the case of the euro this “falling dollar” consistent with that idea.
Leverage In Argentina Is More Than Leverage And Argentina
Like China, Argentina got caught up in the “dollar” run or squeeze. It finally came to a merciful end in late February 2016, several weeks after the global illiquidity reset in worldwide liquidations.
Inflation? Not Even Reflation
If inflation is a monetary phenomenon, and it is, then China’s inflation trends tell us a lot about the failure of “globally synchronized growth” to be anything more than the latest recovery fantasy.
CNY, Not Imports
The Custom’s Bureau reports today that once again China’s imports were up sharply, +36.9%.
Thinking Liquidation
Somebody has been caught liquidating recently, and it appears they are either still at it or because it was so disruptive it may have triggered severe aftershocks (low liquidity) all around the world.
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