Jeffrey P. Snider Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Chief Investment Strategist at Alhambra Investment Partners LLC
Contributor's Links: Alhambra Investment Partners

As Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheads the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambra’s client base.

Jeff joined Atlantic Capital Management, Inc., in Buffalo, NY, as an intern while completing ... more

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TIC Analysis Of Selling
The “dollar” started rising, global markets spun into turmoil, and during all of it foreign holders, almost exclusively official holders, a fact almost never reported, “sold” primarily UST assets.
Durable Goods After Leap Year
Though conditions this year are improved as compared to this time last year, none of the economic accounts so far including durable goods register anything more than a sign change. There is no growth, and no indication as yet that there will be.
The Inverse Of Keynes
With nearly all of the S&P 500 companies having reported their Q4 numbers, we can safely claim that it was a very bad earnings season.
Stuck In Yesterday
We are stuck until something legitimately changes not in terms of future hope but now, and in a big way. Unfortunately, that just isn’t likely to happen, and I would make the same prediction even if the Obamacare repeal was a done deal.
Non-Randomly Surveying RMB
China’s central bank, unlike other central banks, is constantly active almost never resting. Because it is always in motion, the PBOC can seem to be “adding” liquidity at the very same time it might be “draining” it.
The Confidence In Confidence
Despite what consumer confidence indices make out, there is a discrepancy that over the past few years is as compelling as it is consistent.
Economics Through The Economics Of Oil
The massive contango of the futures curve that showed up as a result of “dollar” conditions made it enormously profitable to pull crude out of current flow and deposit it wherever storage might be available, even at some considerable cost.
Pressure, Sure, But From Where?
Banks under pressure from falling yields? Can’t argue with that.
All In The Curves
We can observe this important difference in the state of the curves today, in particular with the Fed now having “raised rates” three times and leaving the bond market as described at the outset (a renewed conundrum that is anything but).
Again?
The day we stop worrying about Greece is the day we can finally take global growth seriously. That may mean more mess to come, but even a terrible transition is far preferable to continuing without any growth prospects at all.
Baselines Matter Eventually
So much of the world’s credit remains tied to an economic paradigm that no longer exists, and for which only in the past few years have “investors” begun to catch on.
Further Unanchoring Is Not Strictly About Inflation
The Fed has never been explicit about exactly when, or even why, monetary policy changed dramatically in the 1980’s to a regime of pure interest rate targeting of the federal funds rate.
Industrial Symmetry
There has always been something like Newton’s third law observed in the business cycles of the US and other developed economies.
Was There Ever A ‘Skills Mismatch’? Notable Differences In Job Openings Suggest No
Perhaps the most encouraging data produced by the BLS has been within its JOLTS figures, those of Job Openings. It is one data series that policymakers watch closely and one which they purportedly value more than most.
EC Signs
There is only weakness from here on until monetary reform (replacing eurodollars) is enacted. But at least there will be “signs” of labor improvement.
An Extra Day Likely Wouldn’t Have Made A Meaningful Difference
Retail sales comparisons were for February 2017 skewed by the extra day in February 2016. With the leap year February 29th a part of the base effect, the estimated growth rates (NSA) for this February are to some degree better than they appear.
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