Jeffrey P. Snider Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Chief Investment Strategist at Alhambra Investment Partners LLC
Contributor's Links: Alhambra Investment Partners

As Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheads the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambra’s client base.

Jeff joined Atlantic Capital Management, Inc., in Buffalo, NY, as an intern while completing ... more

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Durable Goods Only About Halfway To Real Reflation
New orders excluding those from transportation industries rose 8.5% year-over-year in October 2017, a slight acceleration from the 6.5% average of the four previous months.
The Bond Market Does, In Fact, Use The Correct Start Date
Ben Bernanke defends QE from the perspective of 2009 forward, as if 2008 was all just someone else’s problem irrelevant to the world that came after.
(A)Typical At The Bottom
The economy cannot be doing all that well for those at the bottom. That’s true of any economic time period, of course, even in the best of times, but what’s different.
Using The Correct Start Date Is Key
The last ten years have shown, conclusively, that expectations aren’t nearly enough to foster economic growth. What good is it to try to influence inflation expectations if there isn’t, in the end, any inflation?
EC Eurodollar University: What Are Reserves To A Modern, Wholesale Money System?
It’s difficult to answer the question posed in the title, which in itself is a clue. What we know is what does not count as reserves for a non-reservable currency system. It’s that contradiction that sets off the often graphic misconceptions.
Chart Of The Week; Deconstructing And Applying BRL
We noted the growing divergence between leveraged loan prices and WTI, two risk indicators that were well correlated. The S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan 100 Index did not have a good week this week, while oil was down only somewhat until trading today.
It’s Approaching A Record, But Not For Expansion
The economy may not be consistently contracting anymore, but that doesn’t mean it is consistently growing, either. It actually doesn’t amount much toward expansion at all.
A TIC Look At Qualitative Contraction
The latest update of the Treasury Department’s Treasury International Capital (TIC) estimates clarified a few things. Between the end of January and the end of August, the Chinese had added $149.4 billion in UST holdings.
Industrial Production Still Reflating
Industrial Production benefited from a hurricane rebound in October 2017, rising 2.9% above October 2016. That is the highest growth rate in nearly three years going back to January 2015.
Huge Crude Stakes
In 2017 the oil market has changed. It may be the inventory story, or it may be the exit of producers from hedging that inventory and other products. Whatever the case, money managers just aren’t setting the price like they used to.
Can’t Hide From The CPI
Consumer price indices across the world keep suggesting there remains none. Recoveries were called “V” shaped for a reason.
Symmetry Matters, Or The (Small) Progress Of Stating The Obvious
It’s been five and a half years, let me repeat that, five and a half years, since the Fed last met its definition of price stability.
Retail Sales (US) Are Exhibit No. 1
Retail sales increased for a third straight month in January as Americans kicked off 2016 by spending freely on cars, clothing and online merchandise.
What Central Banks Have Done Is What They’re Actually Good At
Central banks are the epitome of PR and media manipulation. They’ve done such a masterful job of it that even today no matter how much market data disagrees, people just refuse to believe it.
Historical Precedence For How A Bond ‘Bubble’ Ends
In just general terms, the bond market isn’t going to jump aboard the “growth” scenario without a good deal of hard evidence sustained over more than just a year or two, let alone a few months at a time here and there.
Globally Synchronized Downside Risks
Oil prices were riding high after several weeks of steady, significant gains.
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