Jeffrey P. Snider Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Chief Investment Strategist at Alhambra Investment Partners LLC
Contributor's Links: Alhambra Investment Partners

As Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheads the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambra’s client base.

Jeff joined Atlantic Capital Management, Inc., in Buffalo, NY, as an intern while completing ... more

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EC The Disappeared Economy
With three annual benchmark revisions, each pushing the estimate lower and lower, the May 2017 set of revisions now figures durable good shipments contracted by 1.4%. These revisions amount to a much weaker economic picture.
Simple (Economic) Math
Maybe for employers the economy hasn’t actually recovered. There are “signs” of wage acceleration out there, because why wouldn’t there be if the unemployment rate nationally has fallen to 4.5%?
So, Bitcoins
Bitcoins are a remarkable bit of innovative technology. When they were first introduced quietly at the end of October 2008, nobody noticed it or the fitting timing.
Almost Certain
It doesn’t appear as if the OPEC decision went as the oil ministers might have hoped. Agreeing to a nine-month extension, more than the usual six months.
There Is Clarity In Oil’s Increasingly Cloudy Forecast
OPEC announced in November it would for the first time in eight years cut production. It was in many ways the crowning achievement for “reflation”, the last remaining obstacle before the disaster of the “rising dollar” could be put totally behind.
Act Accordingly, Again
Despite all the outward claims of “hawkishness” the message overall seems to be maybe not the Fed turning cautious but is perhaps thinking about turning cautious.
Suddenly Impatient Sentiment
The Federal Reserve’s 5th District Survey of Manufacturing (Richmond branch) dropped to barely positive, calculated to be just 1.0 in May following 20.0 in April and 22.0 in March.
Not Do We Need One, But Do We Need A Different One
The eurodollar has been the global currency effectively for half a century.
Further Trying To Define Liquidity
Why did QE and ZIRP fail? Other than briefly tamping down some projections of volatility in the first, maybe the second instance of it, after 2011 they were a complete nothing because they never really addressed the future.
Stuck Between Dollar And De-Dollar
As we move past all the calendar effects pressed to the front of each year, some trends are starting to come into view. Not only are there trends but a few round numbers, even.
A Lousy State
I don’t pay much attention to the 2 year part of the UST curve because I think it is susceptible to information spoilage, distortions that aren’t strictly related to what a “risk-free” 2s should tell us.
Dereliction: They All Had One Job
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has gone in the direction of the actual “dollar” system for some time, but never manages to quite get there.
Trying To Define Liquidity
Everyone on Wall Street in September 1998 was talking about LTCM not just because they were worried but because they smelled opportunity.
Why JPY?
One of the most prominent features of the “rising dollar”, was an out of control shortage in FX basis. Though cross currency basis swaps with Japan received all the attention, the basis was off against the euro, franc, and a host of other majors.
Unfortunately An ‘Official’ End To The Rising Dollar Isn’t More
TIC data confirms that “reflation” captured more than just pricing sentiment. It appears to have occurred in bank balance sheet activity, and related official sector UST transactions.
Fighting Over The Exact Wrong Things
The most recent anti-“reflation” trend dates back to March 15, which is a date that holds no political significance. It is, instead, related to far more concerning monetary shifts, though not related to the Federal Reserve and monetary policy, either
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