Jeffrey P. Snider Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Chief Investment Strategist at Alhambra Investment Partners LLC
Contributor's Links: Alhambra Investment Partners

As Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheads the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambra’s client base.

Jeff joined Atlantic Capital Management, Inc., in Buffalo, NY, as an intern while completing ... more

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More Small Things
Inflation instead sunk much lower as did the global economy. Was it merely confirmation bias, that “everyone” simply saw what they wanted?
‘Dollar’ ‘Improvement’
Since 2016, Swiss holdings of UST’s have been sideways rather than unwinding – pause rather than recovery; “reflation” instead of reflation. The indicated global “dollar shortage” is still a shortage, just not more of one this year versus last year.
Big Difference Mechanical Tightening
The mainstream narrative as it relates to Chinese money is “tightening.” Having survived the economic downturn last year, we are to believe that the PBOC is once again on bubble duty.
To The Asian ‘Dollar’ And Then What?
The trajectory of Asian dollar expansion has been a big problem, especially absent any capacity in the other parts to take up this latest decay.
TIPping Points?
There was a highly unusual TIPS auction where dealers either largely abstained from participation (a record low takedown) for whatever their own reasons or private investors were so desperate for 5-year inflation protection they outbid everyone.
Money In America
Economists tell us that it was the golden age where technocratic prowess of perfect ideas was put best to work in fashioning stable growth and then leave us with no answers, none, to the asset bubbles as well as what really happened ten years ago.
What’s Left If There Is No Money Or Policy In Monetary Policy? Reality
When talking about the so-called natural rate of interest or R*, the issue is cloaked in the language of the very long run. Pay no attention to that big decline and the timing of it; instead worry only about economic trends that predate the internet.
Broken Employment
For the third consecutive month real average weekly earnings fell year-over-year. In March, at least, with the CPI starting its downward leg the decline was by the smallest amount; essentially flat but fractionally less than zero.
The Fiduciary Rule Educates The Public
Fiduciary Rule, if nothing else, has highlighted the difference between a broker and an investment adviser and the public is better off for the debate having been engaged.
Numbness Is How It Happens
The more I look back the more I am convinced that this version of “reflation” was born Japanese. It all seemed to turn around in early July 2016, the very week that whispers of the, for some, long-sought “big one.”
It Will Restart All Over Again In The Small Things
Six months ago back in October, IBM reported what seemed to be encouraging results. Though revenues at the company were down for the eighteenth consecutive quarter, they were so by the slimmest of margins, just -0.3%.
The Foggy Exit
It is much easier to claim necessary nuance about considerable labor market uncertainties where no satisfying answer may ever be found. Into that fog of mystery, the Fed can exit.
Act Accordingly
The textbook says that whenever the central bank raises its policy rate that means tightening. Actual experience over more than just this last lost decade demonstrates that at the very least it is much more complicated than that.
New Patterns Of Disturbance
Industrial Production, growth has returned but in the same weird asymmetric sort of way that is actually common for the past decade. Year-over-year IP expanded by 1.5% in March 2017, the highest growth rate since February 2015.
Now You Tell Us
As we move further into 2017, economic statistics will be subject to their annual benchmark revisions. High-frequency data such as any accounts published on or about a single month is estimated using incomplete data.
Assessing China’s Economic Risks
The problems with China's GDP appear to be spreading to other statistics, particularly Industrial Production. IP had been almost perfectly stable exhibiting, like GDP, very little variation.
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