James Picerno | TalkMarkets | Page 91
Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator
James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ...more

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US Business Cycle Risk Report - Friday, Dec. 21
Estimates of near-term growth have softened lately, such as this week’s review of nowcasts for the upcoming fourth-quarter GDP report.
Treasury Inflation Forecasts Continue Falling After Fed Rate Hike
The Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates yesterday emboldened the Treasury market to reprice inflation expectations to the downside.
Short-Term Maturities Top US Bond Performances In 2018
The return of risk-off trading in late-2018 has revived demand for the safe haven of bonds, but only short-term maturities are posting year-to-date gains, based on a set of exchange-traded funds covering US fixed-income markets.
Moderate Slowdown Expected For US GDP Growth In Q4
The falling US stock market paints a worrisome outlook, but the latest nowcasts for US GDP in the fourth quarter continue to project a softer-but-still healthy pace of economic activity.
Major Asset Classes Posted Mixed Results Last Week
The headlines focused on the sharp losses in US and European stocks last week, but performances across the major asset classes delivered a mixed picture, based on a set of exchange traded products.
There’s Only One (Sane) Solution Left For UK’s Brexit Mess
It’s the worst alternative, except when compared to everything else, which is why Britain should take the get-out-of-Brexit-free card offered by the European Court of Justice (EOJ).
US Financial Markets Stress Index Ticks Up To 2-1/2 Year High
An estimate of financial stress in US financial markets edged up last week to the highest level since April 2016, based on the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI).
Lehman’s Lessons
Whatever the logic of trying to impose market discipline by letting Lehman fail, the timing of the decision was wrong, and the stakes were huge. It’s no accident that financial system began to melt down following Lehman’s collapse.
Mideast Stocks On Track As Top-Performing Region For 2018
With less than three weeks before the last trading session of the year, equity markets in the Mideast appear set to deliver the strongest (and perhaps only) gain for 2018 among the world’s major regions, based on a set of exchange-traded products.
Treasury Market’s Inflation Forecast Plunges
The implied inflation outlook via Treasury yield spreads in recent months has been pricing in a possibility that inflation has peaked.
Commodities And Bonds Rose Last Week As Stocks Tumbled
US and foreign stock markets fell sharply last week as broadly defined commodities and bonds gained ground, according to a set of exchange-traded products representing the major asset classes.
Growth Rate For US Payrolls Continued To Slow In November
The pace of hiring at companies slowed in November. The softer-than-projected gain pared the year-over-year trend to a three month low.
Low Volatility Stocks Take The Lead In 2018’s US Factor Race
The latest bout of turbulence in the stock market has reshuffled leadership for US equity factor strategies, leaving the low-volatility strategy as this year’s front-runner, based on a set of ETFs.
US Q4 GDP Growth Remains On Track For Moderate Slowdown
Judging by the current outlook for US economic output in the fourth quarter, however, the macro trend still looks set to post moderate growth in GDP for 2018’s final three months.
Treasury Market Flashing A Warning For US Economy
Recession risk remains low for US, based on the latest economic data overall, but the Treasury market is pricing in a higher probability that growth will slow and perhaps lead to a downturn at some point in 2019.
ADP Employment Report: Trend Outlook (Nov. 2018)
Thursday’s release of ADP’s estimate of US private payrolls for November looks set to deliver another sign that US economic activity has peaked.
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