AG Thorson | TalkMarkets | Page 14
Registered CMT, Technical Analyst
Contributor's Links: GoldPredict
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. His regularly scheduled reports are released every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday. For more information, please visit GoldPredict.com.

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GDX Position Update
I expected to see gold prices rally today if $1,201.30 was a critical low, they haven’t. Gold prices now risk closing out the week near the session lows and an important support level ($1,200). Potentially, setting up next week for further weakness.
Gold: Caveat Emptor
Gold prices have dropped below all weekly moving averages. Prices could still collapse into an 8-year cycle low by February. I won’t feel comfortable allocating more of my account until gold trades above $1,310.
Metal Miners Report - Thursday, Nov. 17
Miners have closed five consecutive days below the critical neckline level. The bearish potential rises exponentially with each day this extends.
Should You Buy NUGT?
NUGT is an incredibly volatile trading vehicle and the risk associated with a poorly timed entry is high. Furthermore, severe decay issues make triple levered ETF’s profoundly flawed long-term investments.
Looking For Signs Of A Bottom
A new intermediate cycle would see prices rally for 4+ months likely exceeding their summer highs. In this scenario, miners would move back above their bearish necklines (195 level in HUI), within the allotted 10-trading days.
Guidance In The Gold Chart: Something To Consider
The election distorted the gold cycle out of the October 7th low and this may be the final drop into an intermediate cycle low.
The Technical Breakdown In GDX
The senior mining ETF has officially broken the “neckline”.
Metal Miners Thursday Report
The senior mining gauge entered excellent buy zone status. Nevertheless, with the possibility of an additional 25% decline looming (bearish scenario), we need to wait for practical evidence of a bottom.
DUST Update
Prices are running too far and too fast for me to chase. I wanted to see prices marginally close above the trendline, not up another 20%.
DUST Could Reach Around $80.00
If GDX drops to the bearish scenario target of $15.00-$16.00 (just a possibility right now – not a probability) DUST could reach around $80.00.
The Bearish Head-And-Shoulder Top In Miners
We can safely say we have our line in the sand. If prices drop below $23.43, they will likely break beneath the $22.50 neckline and continue to around $20.00 before bouncing.
Gold Correlation Chart To Watch
There was a knee-jerk reaction in gold, silver, and stocks as the polls began to support Trump late last night. Markets have since calmed, and the immediate spikes higher in precious metals retreated.
A Strong Rally Tomorrow?
Tonight’s election results will likely determine where gold and silver are headed for the balance of the year. A strong rally tomorrow and we can probably take the head-and-shoulder topping pattern off the table for GDX and HUI.
Miners Are Making An “Outside Reversal”
Miners are making an “outside reversal” today. That is when prices trade both above and below the previous day’s session. Similar to the day of the $25.93 high.
Gold Prices Could Drop To Around $1,270
Gold is in the area where I would expect common cycle low “1” to form. Prices could drop a little further to around $1,270; we are essentially waiting for a confirmed price swing to signal the low.
Markets Heading Into A Potentially Volatlile Week
Next week is critical. Precious metals held steady despite the favorable jobs report on Friday. We are now 20-trading days into the first common cycle out of the October 7th lows, and prices should be in the process of forming an interim high.
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