Chris Ciovacco | TalkMarkets | Page 13
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Chris Ciovacco is the founder and CEO of Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM), an independent money management firm serving individual investors nationwide. The thoroughly researched and backtested CCM Market Model answers these important questions: (1) How much should we allocate to risk assets? ...more

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This Chart May Hold Key To Stock Rally’s Fate
While there is no question weak-dollar assets have responded to the Fed over the past few months, the jury is still out on the question of sustainability.
Inflation Expectations May Determine Fate Of Sideways Malaise In Stocks
Based on 30-day Fed fund futures prices, the market is pricing in a 23% probability of a Fed rate hike in June.
What Does History Say About Markets That Fail To Make New Highs For Over One Year?
On May 20, 2015 the S&P 500’s intraday high was 2134. Over a year later, that level has never been exceeded. What does history tell us about markets that fail to make new highs for a long period of time?
A 40-50% Move Coming In Stocks?
The market was on the ropes in early February and righted itself after central banks started throwing spaghetti at the monetary policy wall.
Fed Running Out Of Excuses On Interest Rates
In terms of government policy, the economy has two primary types of stimulus, fiscal and monetary. The Fed controls monetary policy. Congress is the primary driver of fiscal policy.
History Says A Big Move Is Coming For Stocks
When we are in a period of long-term consolidation, it often feels like the market will never break from the range.
Navigating During A Period Of Extreme Central Bank Intervention
Do you think it would be concerning if the Fed announced they were going to start buying S&P 500 ETFs in an effort to "stimulate" the economy? That is exactly what is happening in Japan.
Wage Inflation Keeps Fed In Picture For Both Stocks And Bonds
If economic and earnings data continue to weaken, it is possible the Fed remains on hold for the remainder of 2016. Under that scenario, bonds (TLT) may be the asset class of choice.
Can The Fed Prop Up Markets Indefinitely?
Low interest rates have been helping boost asset prices in numerous asset classes, including stocks and bonds. Relative to historical norms, interest rates remain at extremely low levels.
Will The Fed Hint At June Hike Or Surprise On The Dovish Side?
The base expectation is for the Fed to take no action in terms of interest rates this week. The market will be focusing on language related to the possibility of a June rate increase.
Oil’s Rise May Flip Fed Back To “We Plan To Raise Rates” Script
The Fed stepping in to assist financial markets is not particularly new or surprising but with a dual mandate that includes keeping inflation in check, the central bank’s “bailouts” cannot go on indefinitely.
Stocks Have Gone Sideways While Earnings Have Tanked
If stocks are driven by earnings, then it would be logical to assume that during a period of sideways action in equity prices that earnings would also remain basically unchanged.
Credit Markets Point To Rising Default Rates
If an investor was given the opportunity to invest in two nearly identical bonds with one bond paying 2% per year and the other paying 6% per year, logic says most would choose to invest in the higher-yielding bond.
What Can We Learn From Economically-Sensitive ETFs?
The economically-sensitive materials sector has significantly lagged the S&P 500 over the past two weeks.
Central Banks: Less Pain Now Often Brings More Pain Later
Yellow flags are waving in numerous corners of the market regarding global central banks.
The Easiest Way For The Bullish Case To Improve
Since the stock market bottomed in February, OPEC has talked about the possibility of capping oil production and central banks have assisted with accommodative measures and statements.
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