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President & CIO at Merk Investments
Axel Merk is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Merk Investments, manager of the Merk Funds. Follow @AxelMerk on Twitter. Subscribe to Merk Insights for free at more

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Fed Chart Book
The Fed’s monetary policy has important implications for the bond, stock, and currency markets, and the economic cycle generally.
Fed Chart Book - Wednesday, December 19
The Fed’s monetary policy has important implications for the bond, stock, and currency markets, and the economic cycle generally.
U.S. Business Cycle For December 2018
Most indicators are still positive, with the exception of some longer-term indicators that look negative- suggesting that we are in the late part of the cycle.
U.S. Equity Market Review - Wednesday, Nov. 14
Some measures of market breadth are not far from levels that are historically consistent with major market tops.
The Federal Reserve: Chart Book
Four rate hikes this year (three already done) and three rate hikes next year, would bring the federal funds rate to 3.25%. That is the rate path suggested by the median Fed estimates on the Summary of Economic Projections Dot Plot from September.
U.S. Business Cycle For November 2018
Recession risk over roughly the 1-5 year period has likely increased with measures suggesting the economy is potentially operating above capacity, namely the output gap and labor force capacity utilization.
The U.S. Equity Market
The business cycle backdrop and financial conditions still look very positive for the US equity market, however, some measures of market breadth are showing weakness and are not far from levels that are historically consistent with major market tops.
The Business Cycle For October 2018
At elevated levels consumer confidence measures can act as a contrarian indicator.
The Federal Reserve
The Fed’s monetary policy has important implications for the bond, stock, and currency markets, and the economic cycle generally.
U.S. Equity Market Video - Wednesday, Sept. 19
The business cycle and financial conditions backdrop continue to look supportive for the equity market.
The Business Cycle
Manufacturing PMIs moved up to a new cycle high and the household delinquency rate dropped to a new cycle low.
U.S. Interest Rates
The Fed seems likely to continue gradually hiking rates given that financial conditions have not started to tighten much and given that the Fed views the neutral policy rate as being around 3.00% (currently the fed funds rate is 2.00%).
Analysis: U.S. Inflation
Updating the chartbook on U.S. inflation.
The U.S. Equity Market Chart Book
A review of the US stock market charts vs. key data parameters.
Business Cycle Chart Review
The unemployment rate ticked lower in the latest jobs report (from 4.0% to 3.9%), with the labor force participation rate stable at 62.9%. The 3s10s yield curve has steepened slightly since last month’s report.
The Federal Reserve: Chart Book - Wednesday, August 1
A review on the update chart book of the Federal Reserve.
1 to 16 of 18 Posts