Arthur Donner | TalkMarkets | Page 4
Economic Consultant
Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ...more

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Inflation Fears Relating To $1.9 Trillion Stimulus Are Exaggerated
The US economic outlook is brightening but unwarranted fears of inflation are also coming back. A sustained increase in US inflation is unlikely because the economy is expected to operate substantially below potential for a number of years.
Soaring Global House Prices
The pandemic and zero interest rates are behind soaring housing prices across the globe.
US Job Market
The recent meager payroll jobs increase in the US bolsters the case for the hefty $1.9 stimulus package. A long-term scarring of the American labor market is still a likely outcome.
Canada Experienced A Sharp Decline In Employment In January As Pandemic Lockdowns Increased In Most Provinces
Canada’s unemployment rate increased to 9.4% in January, 3.8 percentage points above the unemployment rate in January 2020, while the US rate of 6.3% was only 2.8 ppts higher over the same twelve months.  
Pandemic Hits Europe Hard
The recession worsened in the fourth quarter of last year, and 2021 is not off to a positive start. The ECB has consequently been providing massive monetary stimulus.
The Pandemic And Zombie Companies
There are differences of opinion among economists as to how they expect the pandemic recession to end.
Zero Rates And Equities
Zero interest rates explain the continued demand for long bonds and strong equities.
World Bank 2021
The latest World Bank projections for the global economy are both discouraging and unfortunately awfully familiar.
Canada’s Employment Outlook Is Quite Bleak
As was the case in the US, the Canadian job market ended last year with rather discouraging economic statistics. 
US Payroll Employment Declined In December. Is This The Darkest Before The Dawn Of A Recovery?
Despite the confidence of a huge economic boost that the Biden Administration will provide Americans, COVID-19 infections continue to rise in many regions of the country.
Global Trade At Pre-Pandemic Level
Despite the pandemic recession, the volume of world trade has returned to its pre-pandemic level.
Fed Officials Project A Low Interest Rate Environment Until At Least The End Of 2023
At its last FOMC policy meeting for 2020, the Federal Reserve formally wrapped up what could turn out to be one its most activist year in its history.
Massive Asset Purchases By Central Banks Have Distorted Interest Rates
Central bank assets have been soaring, as the COVID-19 global recession has forced the major central banks to accelerate their support for their economies. All of this has distorted central bank interest rates and the yields on government bonds.
Where Are The Bond Vigilantes?
The US federal debt percentage is heading to around 100% of GDP this year. It likely will continue to rise next year and shortly exceed the record set in 1946 of 106.1% of GDP.
The Canadian Economy Has A Long Road Ahead To Recover The Jobs Lost In The Pandemic
The Canadian job market recovery continued to slow in November, adding only 62,000 net new jobs compared with 84,000 which were created in October.
Canada's Personal Savings Rate Has Soared
The Canadian economy is expected to shrink 5.8% this year and then rebound by about 4.8% in 2022.
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