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Slightly Left of Center Economics Blog
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Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy. Emeritus Contributors to Angry Bear include: Bill McBride, now at his own Calculated Risk, Kash Mansori who now writes sometimes at The Street Light occasionally, Pro Growth Liberal (PGL) now at Econospeak, and Mike Kimel, ...more

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Less Oil Production And Higher Gasoline Prices, Why?
I mean the obvious answer is Demand is outstripping Supply. Oil companies and refineries are not the charitable type either. No oil/natural gas pipeline would have helped either.
U.S. Trade Deficit Goods And Services – February
U.S. trade deficit ticked lower in February, as both our exports and imports increased, but the value of our exports rose slightly more than the value of our imports did.
TIPS Breakeven Vs Michigan Inflation Expectations
Ordinary people’s inflation expectations as reported in the University of Michigan Survey depend critically on food and energy inflation. In contrast, professional forecasters use core inflation. Which are the canaries in the coal mine?
4th Quarter GDP Lower And PCE
To estimate the impact of the change in PCE on the change in GDP, we have to compare real PCE from January and February to the the real PCE of the 3 months of the fourth quarter.
New Orders Down 2.2%, Shipments Flat, Inventory Up 0.4%
The volatile monthly new orders for transportation equipment led to February’s new orders decrease.
Do We Produce Too Much If We Are Making Corn Into Plastic Bottles?
Corn, the silage, feed stock, multi-use plastics and sugar crop that has come to dominate the American Midwest. We grow too much, or do we not grow enough?
January Trade Deficit Up 9.4% – Record High, December Deficit Up
The December deficit was revised up to what would have been a record high at the same time.
Oil – Everything Worse But Only Nudged The Old Records Out By A Week Or Two
The EIA’s data shows that the total of our oil and oil product inventories fell by 10,619,000 barrels from 1,735,213,000 barrels on February 25th.
Retail Sales Up 3.8% January, 4th Qtr GDP Increases
Seasonally adjusted retail sales increased 3.8% in January after retail sales for December were revised a bit lower, but November sales were revised somewhat higher.
Oil And SPR At 13 & 19 Year Lows, Total Oil + Product Supply Down
US oil supplies at a 13 year low, SPR at a 19 year low: total oil + products supplies at a 7 1/2 year low, distillate supplies at 26 month low after refinery freeze off.
Oil Prices 7 Year High While Draw From Natural Gas Supply Largest Since Winter Storm
Oil prices rose for a fifth consecutive week and hit a 7 year high in the process, on supply disruptions in the Middle East and on rising tensions between NATO and Russia.
A Flip In Oil Markets
A long time ago, sometime before the 2008 crash, prices of Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ran close to each other.
Is The Downward Sloping Phillips Curve Back?
The US had an inflation rate of 6.8% last year while the EU had one of 4.9%.
November Durable Goods: New Orders Up 2.5%
The Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for November reported that the value of the widely watched new orders for manufactured durable goods increased by $6.5 billion to $268.3 billion in November.
American Shopping - A Runaway Train?
Raising rates is not going to fix the infrastructure for supply chain, much less JIT. Lo and behold, the Fed will whack consumers, the peasants of the economy.
Record High In Producer Price Index And Other Market Indicators
The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.8% in November, as prices for finished wholesale goods rose 1.2% while margins of final services providers were 0.7% higher…
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