• SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 11/30/16 at 2198.81.
• Monitoring purposes GOLD: Covered on 11/9/19 at 24.59 = gain .07%: Short GDX 11/2/16 at 24.78.
• Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Short SPX on 1/13/16 at 1890.28

Above is what may materialize short term. On November 30 the SPY touched a new high on higher volume and most high volume highs are tested and therefore the November 30 high of 221.82 should be touched at a minimum. If the current rally test the November 30 high on lighter volume would be a bearish sign for short term; on higher volume would be a bullish sign. Also the McClellan Oscillator will help to define the trend. If the McClellan Oscillator continues to move higher as the SPY moves higher will continue to have a bullish tone for the market. We have had a previous target near 2220 range on the SPX and if bearish signs do develop near that range we may step out of our long SPX position.

In general we expect the market to be higher in December but probably not a lot higher. The chart above is a longer term view of what may develop in January. The top chart is the McClellan Summation index and the middle window is the NYSE stocks above their 150 day moving average. Strong decline can materialize when the McClellan Oscillator turns down before reaching +500 and stocks above 150 day average turns down below 70%. The blue arrows point out those instances. The McClellan Summation sets at +109.96 and still rising, though not strongly. The NYSE stocks above 150 day average stands at 56.91% and also not showing strength. Though December may be up the upside appears limited for now and it looks at this time that the McClellan Summation index may not reach +500 (things could change) and stocks above 150 day average may not reach above 70% (that could change also). Trump take office on January 20 (big event) and could be when Summation index and Stocks above 150 average turn down. If these two indicators turn down before reaching above their bullish levels could lead to sharp decline. Long SPX on 11/30/16 at 2198.81.

Above is the daily GDX chart with a 50 period moving average of Advance/Decline % and Up down Volume %. When both Advance/Decline % and Up down volume % are below “0” (which they are), a bearish message is indicated. Once these two indicators close above “0” a longer term bullish signal will be triggered. Notice that GDX made a lower low in November and both Advance/Decline % and Up down Volume % made higher lows suggesting GDX is nearing a bullish setup. To help this potential bullish setup the Up down Volume %/Advance/Decline % ratio (top window) would need to close above 1.00. It appears GDX is starting to forming a bottom (monthly charts also suggests a bottom is form) but more time is needed to complete the bottom process.