My website has become unhinged because of alleged holes in its security and nobody can log on, not even me until someone fixes it. So today's blog is being sent out by a secure website which consolidates financial newsletters, into which I have invested, talkmarkets.com

The sign-in button on the www.global-investing.com site has been blocked for being insecure and you cannot log on with your email address and password nor can you override the warning that appears on many websites these days. The one on my site is blocking signing in because the site is insecure, and it is blocking in every browser I have tried using. This may be another malicious attack by a fellow blogger, which has happened in the past; or an attempt to extract money from my company by hackers, which also has happened.

A very interesting article posted on the Schwab site by Randy Frederick argues that volatility spikes (when the VIX goes over 30 but remains under 40) and particularly extreme volatility spikes (over 40) are a buy signal. In the month after an over 30 VIX rise (but under 40) the stock market average S&P 500 gains 1.2%. Over the month after the 30 spike it gains nothing, but over the full year, it is up 7.%.

With extreme volatility, the spike is rarer but much more of a buy signal. In the following week an over 40 VIX the S&P gains an average of 2%; first month an average of 1%; and in the first year an average of 13.9%. Note also that the 40+ levels were typically reached after the S&P had already entered a bear market—which is not the case this time either.

My conclusion is that buying after a VIX boom is a good tactic but you can take your time and make sure that there won't be a higher spike. So far the Feb.5 VIX hit 37.32 and the S&P gained 0.3% in the following week, hardly worth trading. Month and full-year data are not year known.

We have two and a half reporting companies to deal with today along with some more nice price jumps despite the impact of a surprisingly strong dollar (for a currency where debt is getting worryingly high.) We have news from Denmark, Israel, Canada, Hong Kong, Brazil, Norway, Australia, and a few other places today. 

*Orocobre of Australia reported on its H1 results to Dec. 31. Revenues in the half came to US$ 63.2 mn as 5.532 metric tonnes of lithium were produced. Cost of sales per tonne fell to $4.336 mn and cash margin per tonne topped $13.8 mn. Its half-year gross margin came to 62%.

OROCF reports that plans to for 10,000 tonnes/yr lithium hydroxide plant in Fukushima Province is being backed by the govt there to rebuild the area affected by the 2011 tsunami and nuclear plant disaster. Its cost is now estimated at $60-70 mn, higher than before, with Tokyo chipping in about $27 mn so far. After talks with its Toyota partner in the Argentine Olaroz development, it says construction will begin in the middle of 2018. Toyota is partnering with Panasonic to develop electric vehicles and with Ford to make EV and hybrid ones. They are not alone.

OROCF will report on its half-year financial on Friday going beyond what we have worked out from its first 2 quarters. It will not include me at 10:30 am Brisbane time.

*Norway's Tomra reported Q4 revenues of 2.041 bn NOK, up 16% from prior year today despite a 6% drop from currency factors in its collection solutions which were offset by a 12% currency gain in sorting ones. Gross margin hit 43% up 100 basis points from prior Q4 mostly from collection. Operating expenses were NOK 574 mn of which ~10% were from the new container deposit schem in Australia. They rose 4% from prior year after currency adjustments. Before tax income came in at NOK 301 mn down 5% from prior year. Cash flow from operations was down to NOK 356 mn from prior year Q4's 390 mn. Yet the board will up the dividend to NOK 2.35/sh from 2.1 last Q4. TMRAY.

CEO Stefan Ranstrand cited increasing revenues and a “healthy” order intake at a new high in sorting, with a NOK 1.147 bn backlog in this business. For collection (reverse vending machines) business increased steadily and its new New South Wales site after less than 3 months of operation, hit the milestone of 100 mn containers (bottles and cans) returned for a deposit.

Pharma

*The reporting company was Compugen (CGEN), an Israeli specialist in finding active proteins with a database rather than trial and error, which reported that while it is still losing money it is beating analyst forecasts. It lost $7.2 mn for R&D expense in Q4 offset only partly by lower SG&A, down 5% to minus $1.9 mn. Its net loss was down 9.4% y/y to $9.3 mn and off 5.9% to 18 cents/sh. Its available cash was halved to $30.4 mn which still can keep CGEN going.

For the full year, it had a loss of $37.1 mn or 72 cents/sh vs a prior year loss of $31.5 mn or 62 c/sh.

The main news is that its preclinical stage pipeline on myeloid targts is moving to the clinic with COM701 anti-PVRIG (poliovirus receptor immunoglobulin) while its CGEN-15001T program will be reported on by German Bayer, which bought rights to it. It inhibits a different immune checkpoint in cancer, targeting ILDR2 immunoglobulin-liek domain containing receptor 2). With 2 drugs going into trials. A third find is COM902 which may combine with the first in treating TIGIT (t-cell immunoreceptor with lg and ITIM domains precursor) whose PD-1 blockers inhibits a different checkpoint blocking cancer antigens.

Its shares rose a ridiculous 13.5% here today, which is overdoing the optimism. If I didn't have so many other concerns I would be lightening up here. CGEN.

*Novo Nordisk also rose, by only 1.8% after the Danish firm reported that the US Express Scripts formulary now includes its GLP-1 (glucogen-like peptide 1 receptor agonist) Ozempic for diabetes sugar and weight control. NVO.

*Teva is back in the plus column by 2.6% on no news I can find, but now flirting with $20.51 in price. TEVA.

*Zacks downed GlaxoSmithKline to sell from hold. GSK.

*JP Morgan cut Shire Pharma of Ireland to perform from outperform. SHPG is splitting its stock to hive off its ancestral ADHD drug line from more high-risk orphan drug research.

*New stock pick Zymeworks of Canada after soaring yesterday on a fund taking a stake is up another 1.1% today. In order to keep my writers happy I published both a bullish report by Martin Ferrera and a bearing one by Patti the Biotech Maven. So far our Canada reporter who has owned ZYME before it was listed is turning out to be right but this is a volatile stock in a perilous industry where a payoff will take some time, as Patti argued.

On seekingalpha.com Jerome Verony, who interviewed its CEO, tipped ZYME's ZW33 arguing that “the need for HER-2 targets will not go away” and Roche faces not only biosimilars but now the dual-target from ZYME as well. The dual target which works in low concentrations reducing toxicity means ZYME's treatment can help women with only low or intermediate HER-2 expressing tumors and not depend on surgery, chemotherapy, and hormones alone. RHHBY is Swiss.

Meanwhile a different seekingalpha.com writer, Jonathan Faison, also recommended ZYME for its ZW25 which has orphan status, because its phase I trials has had an appreciable positive impact on patients who have exhausted all other options. This is an Azyetric bispecific antibody targeting HER 2 receptor licensed to a sub of Johnson & Johnson, Jenson. It will enter phase I trials this calendar year under an Investigational New Drug FDA application. Other Azymetric lead products will also enter the clinic this year according to ZYME.

Banks & Insurance

*Standard Life Aberdeen's UK star manager Thomas Moore runs the Standard Life UK Income Unconstrained Fund which recent boosted its stake in Virgin Money, according to Trustnet, a blog which applauded his move as a way to protect Britons from inflation, higher interest rates, and volatility, all of which have been lacking lately. In 2017 Moore's fund recovered from losses in the prior year but he is really keen on the current market, telling the blog “I'm quiter expected at the money [as] we bought on the other side of the market shake-out” adding: “Common sense will prevail and investors will consider cash flows and dividends.” They will also consider management rather than robotic index tracking. VRGDF.

Latin Ratings

*JP Morgan downrated Cosan to perform from outperform. The Brazilian share of CZZ rose 2.56% all the same. It will run a Cosan Day in São Paulo Mar. 19 covering CZZ, Rumo, and Cosan S.A. For shareholders and analysts with breakfast and lunch. I am not attending.

*The broker slashed Ecopetrol to underperform from perform. EC is Colombian.

Telco & Technolgy

*Nokia won a recommendation for its eventual 5G prowess from Stephen Simpson, CFA, in seekingalpha.com today. He argues that over the longer term, starting in a year or so, NOK will gain from 5G deployments and keep its tech licensing and ancillary market earning as well. “I continue to believe Nokia will outshine Ericsson in the upcoming 5G cycle” and with “'Web 2.0' routing and optical business growth.” He predicts double-digit returns when this gets going.