The stock market is nearing the ten week cycle low from November 4^th, 2016. The daily Bollinger bands are tightly squeezed together suggesting a break-out one way or the other (an expansion of volatility). The SPX broke the uptrend line today only to close back above the line.  Normally, this is a sign of strength, but the OBV did not confirm the recent highs suggesting the smart money has already moved away from the market. I would call this a sign of weakness.

All it takes is a straw to break the proverbial camel’s back and that straw could enter the picture on Friday the 13^th. We had a similar set up on Friday September 9^th, 2016. This is not a prediction, but rather a head’s up.

If a Friday the 13^th event takes place (which is possible), I would then shift my March 2017 target to just down 5%, somewhere in the 2160’s.

GDX looks as though it could fall hard here too into next week, just like early September.  We caught the recent decline, then the up move into today (from yesterday), and then went short again near 23.18.