TSLA Proves More Isn’t Always Better

A 7% move higher in Tesla (TSLA) pushed it to a market capitalization that is now higher than Ford (F). This is more impressive when you consider the fact that last year Tesla produced only 76,000 cars while Ford produced 6.6 million.

The astute investor knows that the stock market looks ahead not backward, but even if you believe Tesla’s optimistic estimates of producing 500,000 by 2018 it is still only 7.5% Ford’s current deliverables.

The moral of the story is simple, more is not always better.

However, when the general market, such as the Nasdaq Composite reaches a new high, it would be better to see substantially more than 100 stocks hitting new 52-week highs.

Additionally, while the media has focused on the Nasdaq’s ability to reach new all-time highs, it’s important to focus on the fact that a strong market would have had more of the Modern Family members trading at least over the high of the big down day on March 21st.

As of right now, none of the Modern Family members are trading over their March 21st daily high.

So if I were to look for what the Modern Family seems to be in agreement on, it’s that they all seem to be following the ebb and flow of Granddad (IWM). All but SMH put in their own respective short-term peaks on the first of March. They all got hit hard on the 21st of March, and none have recovered.

Now, looking at IWM for clues to its next move, its close back under the 50-DMA and under its prior day’s low will be bearish if tomorrow continues to trade lower.

In summary, the SPY looks like it wants to hold its 50-DMA and Nasdaq is being hailed as a strong leader, but until the Modern Family has more members trading over their March 21st I’ll be very cautious.

S&P 500 (SPY) Stopped at the 50-DMA. That’s the key level to hold now.

Russell 2000 (IWM) Closed under 50-DMA and prior day low. Be careful under today’s low. Needs to break 139 to look good.

Dow (DIA) Same story as the SPY.

KRE (Regional Banks) 53.50 is the key support to hold

SMH (Semiconductors) 80 must clear. 78 is the big support.

IYT (Transportation) Now must clear 165 and show muscle to 167.15 its 50 DMA and hold 162.50

IBB (Biotechnology) This must clear over 296 and hold 286.

XRT (Retail) 42.50 is a key level to hold but really, now it must get over the 50 DMA at 42.70

GLD (Gold Trust) 120.25 the 200 DMA with 118 pivotal

SLV (Silver) 2 Inside days above the 200 DMA

GDX (Gold Miners) 22.40 support 23.43 resistance

USO (US Oil Fund) Noise until it closes over 11.00

OIH (Oil Service Holders) 30.20-30.50 key weekly support. Need to clear 31.15

TAN (Solar Energy) 17.45-17.50 to clear

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 120.25 to 120.40 area pivotal to hold and 122.30 pivotal resistance

UUP (Dollar Bull) 25.78 support and 26.00 resistance

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