Today's Trading Plan: Deciphering Market Intentions Going Forward

By Ryan Mallory of SharePlanner

Monday, November 14, 2016 9:49 AM EDT

Technical Analysis:

On the only attempt at a move lower last week by the S&P 500 (SPX), the dip buyers re-emerged and bounced the market off of its 5-day moving average.
Friday's slight sell-off ended SPX's 4-day winning streak.
Short term, the market is undoubtedly overbought.
Volume on SPDRs S&P 500 (SPY) saw a massive drop-off compared to the last two days, but still managed to match recent averages.
The Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) is in a whole other league of its own, nearly rallying 1,000 points last week, coming mainly from the major rallies in the banks. In doing so, DJIA easily cruised to new all-time highs, breaking the ones previously established in August.
CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) had one of its biggest one weeks sell-offs ever, and is now testing the rising trend-line off of the August lows.
It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates for the first time this year during their meeting in December. But the market has not been concerned with that at this point.
Crude continues to drop (/CL) but nobody seems to care really, and the oil companies are barely seeing any weakness. However, a break below July's lows, would catch everyone's attention.
Over the past two days, SPX has actually put together some what of a distribution area on the 30 minute chart. A break below 2151, would get the engines going for the bears.
For the bears, the key area will be the 200-day moving average, which SPX is far from at this juncture.
There is a clear rotation taking place in this market where money is flowing from tech and utilities and into defense, banks, and infrastructure.
Poor breadth continues to dominate this market over the last three trading sessions.