The Semiconductors Are Not Helping This Market

The market's short-term trend is a bit weak, and the bullish percents are drifting lower.

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The major indexes are below their 50-day moving averages.

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The Semiconductors are not helping this market as the index tests its 200-day average.

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Junk Bonds are no longer cooperating either.

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Oil up and Gold lower? What does that tell us? I am open to other views, but I would say higher oil points to higher rates, which points to a higher US Dollar which pushes down the price of gold. I don't think that works in favor of stock prices for the general market.

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Sector Strength

Below is the spreadsheet I use to help track the relative strength of the various areas of the general market. Blue is a shift higher, and red is a shift lower.

Stick with the relative strength leaders, particularly when the market pulls back into the buying range again in a couple weeks (as indicated by the PMO Index).

The charts above are not good signals for a stock market in the short and medium-term time periods.

Lakshman Achuthan of the ECRI is talking about the economy in this brief video. This is worth a listen, but basically he says that the US economy is experiencing a cycle downturn. He says that there are no signs yet of a recession, but that during a cycle downturn the economy is vulnerable if there is an unexpected shock. He is watching carefully for signs that indicate where the economy is headed next, up or down.

Outlook Summary:

The long-term outlook is increasingly cautious. Reduce overall exposure to stocks on rallies.
The medium-term trend is down.
The short-term trend is down as of Apr-20 

The medium-term trend for bonds is down as of Apr-19. The 10Y yield is back above its 50-day.

Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment advisor. My comments above reflect my view of the market, and what I am doing with my accounts. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy, ...

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