Based on the chart below, it looks like the market is setting up for a run at the January highs. There is still plenty to worry about, but the issues have flushed out the excessive bullishness.

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The market feels so strong today, and maybe I getting swept up in the enthusiasm. But with the Nasdaq hitting new highs, I think we can say that the medium-term trend has turned upwards again.

A close under this week's low would indicate that I am wrong, and, if that happens, it would be time to get defensive in accounts again.

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Outlook Summary:

Higher rates are now a headwind for US stocks. The recent tax cut, the 300 billion spending increase, and the already out-of-control federal deficit are a set up for a very dangerous spike in interest rates.

Something else to consider is the Mueller investigation. I worry that the headlines generated by the investigation may rattle the markets more than people are currently anticipating. 

• The long-term outlook is cautious.
• The medium-term trend is up (as of Mar-9).
• The short-term trend is up.

Strategy:

• My accounts are about 70% stocks. The remainder is invested in bond funds.
• Buy large cap stocks and ETFs on pullbacks of the medium-term trend.
• Buy small cap growth stocks on break outs to new highs during short-term up trends.
• Stop buying when the short-term trend is at the top of the range.
• Take partial profits when the uptrend starts to struggle at the highs.
• Never invest based on personal politics.