The Daily Shot And Data - April 28, 2016

Greetings,

We begin with Japan where the central bank announced that it will be:

1. Keeping the benchmark rate unchanged at -0.1%.
2. Keeping the monetary base target (maintaining the same pace of purchases).
3. Delaying the timing to reach the 2% inflation target.

While many economists didn't expect much of a policy change, the markets were pricing in all sorts of "monetary goodies." These ranged from accelerated equity ETF purchases to doubling of JGB purchases to LTRO-style lending to banks. 

The markets reacted sharply to this disappointment, with the dollar-yen instantly giving up 2%.

Note: chart shows US dollar falling against the yen; the yen is strengthening

The Nikkei225 futures gapped down 3% in response to the BoJ announcement.

Even in the US, the S&P500 futures fell.

In other news from Japan, the nation's CPI report was weaker than expected. Economists are projecting further weakness in inflation - especially now that the yen has strengthened. Is the BoJ going back to the "drawing board"?

Source: Goldman Sachs

Japan jobs/applications ratio continues to climb as labor shortages persist. Will this push wages materially higher?

In Australia, a May RBA rate cut is now back on the table after yesterday's "lowflation" shocker.

Source: Macquarie

Turning to China, the Capital Economics China GDP tracker shows growth picking up in the first quarter, although remaining below the official GDP figures.

Source: ‏‏@CapEconChina

Separately, here is a longer-dated chart from Nordea showing China's domestic loan growth. Impressive.

Source:  ‏@enlundm 

Continuing with yesterday's discussion on frenzied speculative activity in commodities, take a look at the volume in cotton futures.

Source: barchart

Source: Bloomberg.com

Now let's review a few developments in other emerging economies.

1. The weakness in the Saudi economy is now pressuring the retail sector.

Source: Goldman Sachs

2. As Venezuela's inflation reaches astronomical levels, bill printing becomes expensive. This is not going to end well.

Source: Bloomberg.com

Source: Bloomberg.com

3. Mexico's unemployment rate fell to the lowest level in almost 8 years. A weak peso certainly helps as Americans set up shop south of the border.

4. The FX reserves in emerging economies have stabilized as the US dollar rally stalled. For now.

Source: Citi

Next, we have 3 developments in the Eurozone.

1. The area's overnight interbank rate moves deeper into negative territory.

Source: ECB

2. Eurozone loan growth is still weak but continues to recover. This credit expansion suggests that the single-currency bloc has dodged another recession.

Source: ECB

3. French labor markets seem to have stabilized as the ranks of the unemployed level off.

Source: Natixis. h/t Josh

1. Back in the United States, the FOMC seems to have shifted its focus somewhat. Here is a summary from Natixis. Note that many economists project a June rate hike assuming the data holds up.

Source: Natixis

2. Treasury yields were pushed lower by both the Fed and the BoJ.

3. The Citigroup US economic surprise index is stuck below zero since the beginning of 2015.

Source: Yardeni Research

Here is JPMorgan's version of a US economic surprise index - compared with the S&P500. Something's got to give?

Source: JPMorgan

4. Pending US home sales rose 1.4% last month - the highest pace of growth in about a year.

5. Railcar loadings for top rail firms in North America are declining.

Source: Railshare

Here are the total US railcar loadings. 

Source: Yardeni Research

Note that a good portion of this decline is due to coal.

Source: Yardeni Research

1. In the energy markets, the NYMEX crude closed above $45/bbl for the first time since last November.

Source: barchart

2. On the other hand, US crude oil in storage hit another post-Great Depression high. Many expect these inventories to begin declining as the driving season starts.

3. As discussed before, persistently weak energy prices are still making their way through some production-dependent communities. Here is the unemployment rate in Odessa, TX (Permian).

4. More oil production capacity remains undiscovered.

Source: @WoodMackenzie, h/t Jake

5. US distillates demand recovers on stronger diesel usage (gasoline demand also remains elevated).

Finally, here are some developments in credit and equity markets.

1. US leveraged finance debt (HY bonds and leveraged loans) outperforms the equity markets year-to-date on a total return basis. 

Source: Ycharts.com

2. The Nasdaq Composite underperforms the S&P500 on AAPL, MSFT.

Source: Ycharts.com

There is some good news for the tech sector, as Facebook posts a 52% jump in Q1 revenue on stronger ad sales.

Source: ‏Google

Turning to Food for Thought, we have 5 items this morning:

1. Cities with some of the highest rent as a percentage of inhabitants' net earnings.

Source: @StatistaCharts, h/t Jake

2. Citizens of some nations in Europe prefer part-time work.

Source: The Economist,  @wef

3. India plans to paint 3-D virtual crosswalks as speed-breakers to make crossing roads safer.

Source: @MeredithFrost

4. Sources of fatal falls in the private US construction industry.

Source:‏ @BLS_gov

5. As economies get richer, people work fewer hours - with one big exception.

Source:‏ ‏‏‏@paul1kirby, @Wonkblog

 

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