Stocks Run Win Streak To Fifth Week After Fed Tamps Down Rate Hike Expectations

Stocks ended the week higher once again, extending the market's winning streak to a fifth week, after the Federal Reserve surprised by indicating that it may make only two more quarter-point rate hikes this year, down from members' prior median view that four such hikes were in the cards. The Fed was the headliner, but certainly was not alone, as a number of central banks announced policy decisions this week on the heels of the ECB unloading its "bazooka" of easing last week.

MACRO NEWS: The week certainly did not lack for central bank news, as the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan were among a full slate of policy decisions. The Federal Reserve released its FOMC meeting statement, maintaining the Federal Funds Rate at 0.25%-0.50% in the face of "modest" economic growth, as most had expected. The Fed's summary of economic projections showed the median of policy makers' projections now implies two quarter-point increases this year, down from the forecast of four implied by their projections in December. At a press conference following the news, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the FOMC still expects inflation to pick up over the medium term, adding that negative rates are not actively being debated or considered. The Bank of Japan held policy unchanged, as expected, while also promising to add more stimulus if needed. The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank kept their key interest rates unchanged, as expected. Also meeting expectations, the central bank of Norway cut rates by 25 basis points to an all-time low of 0.5%. Russia's central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged and warned that its moderately tight monetary policy may last longer than previously planned...

In the U.S., retail sales fell 0.1% in February, versus expectations for a decline of 0.2%. When autos and gasoline are removed, the core reading was up 0.3%, versus expectations for an increase of 0.2%. The Producer Price Index fell 0.2% overall, matching expectations, while the core rate was unchanged, versus expectations for an increase of 0.1%. The headline Consumer Price Index fell 0.2% in February, matching expectations. The core CPI, excluding the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.3% in February, versus expectations for an increase of 0.2%. The Empire manufacturing report had a reading of +0.62, topping expectations for a reading of -10.5 and breaking a string of seven consecutive months in contractionary territory. The NAHB homebuilder sentiment index was flat at 58, versus expectations for it to tick up to 59. Housing starts for February were up 5.2% to a 1.18M rate, versus expectations for an increase of 4.6%, while building permits were down 3.1% to a 1.17M rate, versus expectations for a decline of 0.2%. Industrial production fell 0.5% in February with capacity use at 76.7%. Analysts expected industrial production to fall 0.2% last month, with utilization forecast to come in at 76.8%. Initial jobless claims were 265,000 last week, versus the expected 268,000 first-time claims. The current account deficit for the fourth quarter came in at $125.3B, versus expectations for a deficit of $118B. The Philadelphia Fed Index came in at 12.4, which was much better than the -1.5 reading that was expected. The index of leading indicators rebounded a modest 0.1% to 123.2 in February, versus expectations for the index to rise 0.2% last month. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for March came in at 90.0, below the expected 92.2 reading and down from last month's 91.7 figure...

In Asia, Japan's exports fell 4% in February, versus the consensus expectation for a decline of 3.1%, and imports fell 14.2%, versus the forecast for a drop of 15.8%. In China, industrial output rose 5.4% from a year earlier in January and February, compared with the 5.6% consensus estimate of economists. Retail sales grew 10.2% in the first two months of the year compared to a year earlier, missing the projected rise of 11%.

COMPANY NEWS: Shares of Valeant (VRX) plunged 51% on Tuesday after the embattled drugmaker slashed its forecast for revenue and earnings in this fiscal year, explaining that its recent challenges are not yet behind it and it now assumes lower growth in its U.S. dermatology, gastrointestinal, and women's health portfolios. Notably, Valeant warned that its delay in filing an annual report may violate agreements with its lenders, allowing them to potentially declare the company to be in default. The company also created confusion, and may have added to investors' caution, by issuing different guidance in its press release and its conference call slides. After the plunge, Valeant's most prominent investor, Pershing Square's Bill Ackman, said the fund is going to take a "much more proactive role" at the company and he continues to believe that the value of its underlying business franchises are worth multiples of the current market price. "Getting to those values, however, will require restoration of shareholder confidence in the management and governance of the company," Ackman added. Valeant dropped another 11.5% on Thursday, adding to its already substantial losses, after Reuters reported that its creditors are beginning to demand new terms as the company seeks to negotiate to avoid being in default on its debt. For the week, Valeant ended with a loss of over 60%...

Starwood Hotels (HOT) jumped nearly 8% to close at $75.93 on Monday after receiving a non-binding, $76 per share cash takeover offer from a consortium of companies led by China's Anbang Insurance. Then, on Friday, Starwood gained 5.5% to close at the week at $80.58 after the hotel company announced that it has received a revised $78 per share takeover offer from the Anbang consortium that it considers "superior" to its existing merger agreement with Marriott (MAR). Starwood intends to terminate the merger pact with Marriott unless the companies agree on revisions to their deal. Marriott, which said it is reviewing the Anbang consortium's proposal and "carefully considering its alternatives," has until Monday, March 28 to strike a new deal. Meanwhile, media reports indicated that Anbang has agreed to buy another hotel company, Strategic Hotels & Resorts, from its private equity owner Blackstone (BX) for about $6.5B...

TransCanada (TRP) agreed to acquire Columbia Pipeline Group (CPGX) for $25.50 in cash per common share, representing an aggregate transaction value of approximately $13B including the assumption of approximately $2.8B of debt. In other M&A news, The Fresh Market (TFM) agreed to be acquired by alternative investment manager Apollo Global (APO) for 28.50 per share in cash, while Acacia Research (ACTG) received a $3.72 per share bid from Uniloc. Rofin-Sinar (RSTI) jumped after agreeing to be acquired by Coherent (COHR) for $32.50 per share. Affymetrix (AFFX) rose 14% to close at $15.99 on Friday after Origin Technologies, a newly created entity owned by a group of former Affymetrix executives, announced that it submitted a proposal to acquire the company for $16.10 per share in an all-cash transaction. The proposal represents a 15% premium relative to Affymetrix' proposed transaction with Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Origin noted. Mead Johnson (MJN) rallied 11% on Tuesday after Ben Harrington said in his Betaville blog that the company was working with bankers after receiving takeover interest from Nestle (NSRGY) and Danone (DANOY). Ferro (FOE) gained about 5% the same day after Bloomberg reported that the company received and rejected a takeover approach from Apollo Global...

GW Pharmaceuticals (GWPH) soared 120% to close Monday at $84.71 after a clinical trial of its marijuana-derived epilepsy treatment met its primary endpoint...

FedEx (FDX) surged about 12% higher on Thursday after the shipping company posted better than expected third quarter results. FedEx also responded to recent media reports that indicate Amazon (AMZN) has ambitions to compete with the company and its peers UPS (UPS) and the U.S. Postal Service, saying that the stories make for interesting headlines but the reality of creating another major logistics entity to compete with the three main carriers would be a "daunting task that would take tens of billions of dollars" and years of work to achieve...

Oracle (ORCL) advanced nearly 4% on Wednesday after the company reported higher than expected Q3 EPS and roughly in-line revenue, including Cloud revenue that came in above expectations. Oracle also announced that its board of directors authorized the repurchase of up to an additional $10B of common stock under its existing share repurchase program. Among other companies reporting earnings this week, Adobe (ADBE), DSW (DSW), Childrens Place (PLCE), and 3D Systems (DDD) rose immediately following their quarterly reports, while Guess (GES), Williams-Sonoma (WSM) and Jabil Circuit (JBL) declined after announcing their quarterly results...

JPMorgan (JPM) announced that the bank was greenlighted by the Federal Reserve to repurchase of up to an additional $1.88B of common stock through the end of the second quarter of 2016 as part of the firm's current equity repurchase program. That buyback allowance is in addition to the $6.4B of common shares authorized for repurchase by the board last year, JPMorgan noted. Big bank peer Bank of America (BAC) also reported that it was allowed to add up to $800M of share repurchases on top of the $4B share repurchase authorization previously announced in March of last year... Peabody Energy (BTU) plunged about 45% on Wednesday after the coal miner said its operating losses and negative cash flows mean it may not have sufficient liquidity to sustain operations, potentially leading it to file for bankruptcy... SeaWorld (SEAS) advanced after announcing it will end breeding of killer whales within its facilities, noting that it now plans to introduce "natural" encounters with orcas in place of its previous theatrical shows.

INDEXES: The Dow gained about 2.4% to close at 17,602.30; the S&P 500 rose about 1.6% to close at 2,049.58; the Nasdaq advanced about 1.3% to close at 4,795.65.

 

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