Stocks Outlook - Friday, August 10

Thoughts

  1. The NYSE Composite is falling. NOT bearish for the U.S. stock market.
  2. This is about to become the longest economic expansion in U.S. history. Here’s proof that economic expansions and bull markets don’t die of old age.
  3. Initial Claims are still trending lower. A medium-long term bullish sign for the stock market and economy.
  4. Continued Claims are still trending lower. A medium-long term bullish sign for the stock market and economy.

1 am: The NYSE Composite is falling. NOT bearish for the U.S. stock market.

Here’s one of latest false narratives for the U.S. stock market, brought to you by permabear David Rosenberg:

Zerohedge has recently echoed David’s sentiment with:

(Click on image to enlarge)

I don’t think David or Zerohedge understand what the NYSE Composite is. From Wikipedia:

The NYSE Composite covers all stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange, including American stocks AND foreign stocks. Over 2,000 stocks are covered in the index, of which over 1,600 are from United States corporations and over 360 are foreign listings; however foreign companies are very prevalent among the largest companies in the index: of the 100 companies in the index having the largest market capitalization (and thus the largest impact on the index), more than half (55) are non-U.S. issues.

As you can see, the NYSE Index is not representative of the “U.S. stock market”. The NYSE is heavily weighed down by foreign (non-U.S.) stocks. The S&P 500 is representative of the U.S. stock market. The NYSE Index has lagged the S&P 500 significantly because foreign stocks markets (e.g. China, emerging markets) are getting crushed by Trump’s trade war.

(Click on image to enlarge)

1 am: This is about to become the longest economic expansion in U.S. history. Here’s proof that economic expansions and bull markets don’t die of old age.

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