Safety In The Herd Until After The Election
For most of September and October, I reinvented creative ways each day to say the market was in a trading range.
Since Monday, when the trading range broke to the downside, I have another no less creative or inventive task.
The newest topic: How to approach trading so close to the highly charged Presidential election.
The beautiful Merino sheep, prized for its wool, is regarded as having the softest wool of any sheep.
The way we are approaching trading right now? Sheepishly shy and overprotective about our soft wool.
After all, who wants to get sheared right before the weather turns frosty?
Regardless who wins, the overall market has significantly weakened. If there were a stress factor ETF, it would be in a flourishing bullish phase.
Keeping it real though, sheep-like exposure to equities before the election seems like the intelligent path.
Thereafter, I guarantee there will emerge clear technical indicators to help guide us to make future trading decisions.
With historical levels of cash on the sidelines, you probably wonder where will that money go?
Tonight at 8:30 EST, I am teaching a free webinar called: How To Profit From Post-Election and Year End Trends!
Click here to sign up to join me.
Many of the topics I cover consistently in the Daily are explored in depth.
For instance, my “go to” Modern Family is key! Nothing helps us more than seeing how The Russell 2000, Retail, Semiconductors, Biotechnology, Regional Banks and Transportation interrelate.
Knowing the diversion among the family and identifying the leaders compared to the laggards prepared us for this recent downturn.
That is why the phases all the indices and the Modern Family are in have served and will continue to serve as our primary road map.
Furthermore, classic reversal top and bottom patterns along with phase changes are my favorite trade setups. After the election, my eyes will watch for those low risk setups.
Certain megatrends will stay intact. New ones might emerge. Nevertheless, analyzing economic data, technical patterns and public perception in the current megatrends helps me narrow down exactly where to look for reversals and phase changes.
All indices are in warning phases. Two of the Modern Family sectors are in bullish phases. Equites are in “every” phase from bearish to bullish. I expect the market will diversify even more after the election.
That makes now a perfect time to peacefully herd in the sheep pasture with me.
Teaching and writing ground me. I thank all of you who read the Daily whether its occasionally or every day!
Hopefully, I will see a lot of you later. Please identify yourself to me so I can give you personal hellos and thanks!
S&P 500 (SPY): Down 8 days in a row, we are looking for support at 208 the 200 DMA.
Russell 2000 (IWM): 116.95 area the monthly MA now resistance. 114.25 the 200 DMA support
Dow (DIA): 180 pivotal 182.50 resistance to clear 177.38 the 200 DMA
Nasdaq (QQQ): 113.63 September low support. 115 pivotal
KRE (Regional Banks) 43.50 resistance and support 42.50
SMH (Semiconductors) Confirmed warning phase. Needs to clear and close back over 67.29 to get back in good shape. 64 next support area
IYT (Transportation) 143.45 the 50 DMA support must keep holding. Over 146 should help the market
IBB (Biotechnology) June low 240.30.
XRT (Retail) 40.00 area the underlying support. 42.25 now resistance
IYR (Real Estate) Not even that oversold.
GLD (Gold Trust) Unconfirmed bullish phase-needs second day
SLV (Silver) 17.00 support to hold
GDX (Gold Miners) Inside day. 24.45 support 25.60 resistance
USO (US Oil Fund) If opens over 10.08, you got a low risk for a bounce.
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) New low since 2013
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Support at 130. Weekly MA at 131.75
UUP (Dollar Bull) I thought it might revisit 25. Got to 25.10. NFP in the morning
Tonight at 8:30 EST, more