EC Rising Rates And Funds

There’s always something else to worry about. For a while now, investors we admire such as Grantham, Mayo, van Oterloo (GMO) and Research Affiliates have been touting the cheapness of foreign stocks, especially emerging markets stocks. This past August James Montier of GMO argued that an allocation to the S&P 500 Index, given its valuation then, counted more as speculation than as an investment. Also, in November, Research Affiliates published a paper questioning whether anyone needed U.S. stock exposure.

Valuations of foreign stocks are indeed more compelling than those of their U.S. counterparts. But U.S. investors must account for other things when venturing abroad, including currency moves. When U.S. investors own a foreign stock that trades on a U.S. exchange, they receive two returns, the return of the stock in its local currency and the movement of the local currency relative to the U.S. dollar. In other words, U.S. investors take on foreign currency exposure when they own foreign stocks. Lately, that has provided some pain as the dollar has surged thanks to rising interest rates. From the lows of this year in February, the U.S. dollar has surged more than 4% against a basket of foreign currencies.

 

And that means investors in foreign stock have suffered, though those stocks have not necessarily performed badly in their local currencies. For example, the MSCI EM Index has dropped 1.72% and 3.97% over the past month-to-date and three month periods, respectively, through May 9, 2018, when translated into dollar terms – in other words, for ordinary U.S. investors without a currency hedge. But in local currency, over the same two time periods, the same index has dropped only 0.73% and 1.46%, respectively.

In the realm of developed markets, the MSCI EAFE Index has delivered a month-to-date and three-month return through May 9, 2018, of -0.07% and 0.37%, respectively, when translated to the dollar. But it has delivered 1.10% and 3.29%, respectively, to investors with a hedge, thanks to the strengthening dollar and weakening foreign currencies.

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