Week 28 of 2018 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data.

Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data

We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal and grain are removed from the analysis for carloads, this week it expanded 7.9 %. We primarily use rolling averages the analyze the data due to weekly volatility - and the 4 week rolling average for the intuitive sectors improved from 4.8 % to 6.0 %.

Intermodal transport growth remains strong year-over-year.

The following graph compares the four-week moving averages for carload economically intuitive sectors (red line) vs. total movements (blue line):

Rail's growth rate is improving (and is better than GDP growth).

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity - and is not necessarily looking for clues of the profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] and intermodal combined).

A summary of the data from the AAR:

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 559,064 carloads and intermodal units, up 5 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending July 14 were 271,207 carloads, up 3.8 percent compared with the same week in 2017, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 287,857 containers and trailers, up 6.1 percent compared to 2017.

Eight of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2017. They included motor vehicles and parts, up 2,772 carloads, to 15,076; petroleum and petroleum products, up 2,609 carloads, to 11,950; and grain, up 1,976 carloads, to 24,779. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2017 were coal, down 1,909 carloads, to 84,511; and farm products excl. grain, and food, down 165 carloads, to 16,353.

For the first 28 weeks of 2018, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 7,259,135 carloads, up 1.5 percent from the same point last year; and 7,686,093 intermodal units, up 6.2 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 28 weeks of 2018 was 14,945,228 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 3.9 percent compared to last year.

The middle row in the table below removes coal and grain from the changes in the railcar counts as neither of these commodities is economically intuitive.

[click on graph below to enlarge]

z rail1.png

For the week ended July 14, 2018

• Estimated U.S. coal production totaled approximately 14.5 million short tons (mmst)
• This production estimate is 11.8% higher than last week's estimate and 0.7% higher than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2017
• East of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 5.6 mmst
• West of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 8.9 mmst
• U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 398.5 mmst, 3% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2017