Oil Market Chaos Continues

ValuEngine tracks more than 7000 US equities, ADRs, and foreign stock which trade on US exchanges as well as @1000 Canadian equities.  When EPS estimates are available for a given equity, our model calculates a level of mispricing or valuation percentage for that equity based on earnings estimates and what the stock should be worth if the market were totally rational and efficient--an academic exercise to be sure, but one which allows for useful comparisons between equities, sectors, and industries. Using our Valuation Model, we can currently assign a VE valuation calculation to more than 2800 stocks in our US Universe.

Market volatility has returned with a vengeance so far this year. The stock market has gone into a tailspin driven by a Chinese stock-market sell off and economic slow down, carnage in the oil markets, and the resultant uncertainty about the global economy.

Oil prices are in the gutter thanks to a big over supply and lower demand. Crude has now gone lower than $30/barrel for the first time in twelve years, and investors are watching that per barrel price very carefully. Other commodities are also suffering from price declines--and this adds further uncertainty about the global economy. But, the oil price so far this year has been closely correlated to stock prices.

Lower energy prices have been a boon to US consumers still tied to their automobiles, the trucking industry, auto manufacturers, airlines, and other companies sensitive to the price of refined crude. But, if the declining oil price is indicative of a global slow-down (eg a demand problem) then this will catch up with those industries sooner or later.

Obviously, if you are looking to buy low, oil stocks in most industries within the sector have declined significantly along with the price of crude. Oil is currently near its multi-year low. So, if you're looking for cheap energy/oil stocks, now may be the time. For today's bulletin we queried our systems for the various oil-related industries in the Energy Sector. We find the following data for top-five lists in various categories.

Top-Five Oil Industry Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker

Name

Mkt Price

Valuation (%)

VE Rating

Last 12-M Return (%)

CVRR

CVR REFINING LP

17.38

-20.13%

5

20.69%

TSO

TESORO CORP

90.73

-21.12%

5

18.51%

NTI

NORTHERN TIER

25.32

-5.19%

5

24.00%

ALDW

ALON USA PTNRS

19.04

-2.47%

5

47.25%

VLO

VALERO ENERGY

67.86

-6.02%

5

41.38%

Top-Five Oil Industry Stocks--Most Undervalued

Ticker

Name

Mkt Price

Valuation (%)

VE Rating

Last 12-M Return (%)

ATW

ATWOOD OCEANICS

6.07

-75.00%

3

-79.44%

MCF

CONTANGO OIL&GS

4.77

-75.00%

2

-82.96%

CIE

COBALT INTL EGY

3.25

-75.00%

2

-60.89%

AROC

ARCHROCK INC

5.7

-73.63%

2

-79.78%

ETE

ENERGY TRAN EQT

9.63

-71.92%

3

-64.33%

Top-Five Consumer Staples Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker

Name

Mkt Price

Valuation (%)

VE Rating

Last 12-M Return (%)

SWN

SOUTHWESTRN ENE

8.77

157.65%

2

-65.63%

GLF

GULFMARK OFFSHR

3.11

124.21%

1

-85.25%

CRR

CARBO CERAMICS

16.48

80.53%

1

-51.43%

SYRG

SYNERGY RES CP

5.85

66.69%

2

-50.09%

EQT

EQT CORP

58.04

58.87%

2

-23.49%

Top-Five Consumer Staples Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker

Name

Mkt Price

Valuation (%)

VE Rating

Last 12-M Return (%)

TSO

TESORO CORP

90.73

-21.12%

5

18.51%

CVRR

CVR REFINING LP

17.38

-20.13%

5

20.69%

VLO

VALERO ENERGY

67.86

-6.02%

5

41.38%

MPC

MARATHON PETROL

42.83

-16.77%

5

2.01%

HFC

HOLLYFRONTIER

36.15

-9.01%

5

9.75%

Top-Five Consumer Staples Stocks--Momentum

Ticker

Name

Mkt Price

Valuation (%)

VE Rating

Last 12-M Return (%)

ALDW

ALON USA PTNRS

19.04

-2.47%

5

47.25%

VLO

VALERO ENERGY

67.86

-6.02%

5

41.38%

CAM

CAMERON INTL

60.58

10.23%

4

36.50%

PBF

PBF ENERGY INC

35.54

-2.58%

5

34.01%

NTI

NORTHERN TIER

25.32

-5.19%

5

24.00%

Below is today's data on Valero Energy (VLO):

Valero Energy Corporation owns and operates refineries in the United States and Canada with a combined throughput capacity of approximately two million BPD, making it one of the nation's top refiners of petroleum products. Valero is also one of the nation's leading retail operators with retail outlets in the United States and Canada under various brand names including Diamond Shamrock, Ultramar, Valero, Beacon and Total.

ValuEngine continues its STRONG BUY recommendation on VALERO ENERGY for 2016-01-22. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that VALERO ENERGY has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE Company Size and Momentum.

 

ValuEngine Forecast

 

Target
Price*

Expected
Return

1-Month

68.87 1.50%

3-Month

70.57 4.00%

6-Month

73.10 7.72%

1-Year

80.14 18.10%

2-Year

78.89 16.25%

3-Year

79.61 17.32%

Valuation & Rankings

Valuation

6.02% undervalued

Valuation Rank(?)

36

1-M Forecast Return

1.50%

1-M Forecast Return Rank

100

12-M Return

41.38%

Momentum Rank(?)

95

Sharpe Ratio

0.63

Sharpe Ratio Rank(?)

89

5-Y Avg Annual Return

22.36%

5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank

94

Volatility

35.61%

Volatility Rank(?)

48

Expected EPS Growth

-13.90%

EPS Growth Rank(?)

14

Market Cap (billions)

34.90

Size Rank

98

Trailing P/E Ratio

7.73

Trailing P/E Rank(?)

92

Forward P/E Ratio

8.98

Forward P/E Ratio Rank

79

PEG Ratio

n/a

PEG Ratio Rank

n/a

Price/Sales

0.36

Price/Sales Rank(?)

84

Market/Book

1.60

Market/Book Rank(?)

53

Beta

1.98

Beta Rank

11

Alpha

0.37

Alpha Rank

94

ValuEngine Market Overview

Summary of VE Stock Universe

Stocks Undervalued

73.94%

Stocks Overvalued

26.06%

Stocks Undervalued by 20%

40.21%

Stocks Overvalued by 20%

8.13%

ValuEngine Sector Overview

Sector

Change

MTD

YTD

Valuation

Last 12-MReturn

P/E Ratio

Consumer Staples

1.68%

-5.19%

-5.19%

1.44% undervalued

-6.86%

22.26

Utilities

3.00%

-5.32%

-5.32%

4.14% undervalued

-14.24%

21.45

Computer and Technology

2.07%

-7.71%

-6.41%

8.05% undervalued

-11.29%

27.09

Business Services

1.90%

-7.17%

-7.17%

8.63% undervalued

-13.81%

22.18

Aerospace

1.54%

-7.77%

-7.77%

9.20% undervalued

-13.26%

18.67

Finance

1.72%

-7.96%

-7.96%

11.14% undervalued

-10.02%

14.85

Multi-Sector Conglomerates

1.78%

-9.13%

-9.13%

11.63% undervalued

-20.85%

15.49

Medical

1.74%

-10.76%

-10.76%

13.44% undervalued

-15.05%

26.44

Consumer Discretionary

1.56%

-7.77%

-7.77%

13.72% undervalued

-13.20%

22.44

Industrial Products

1.71%

-8.82%

-8.82%

14.57% undervalued

-14.39%

16.42

Retail-Wholesale

1.80%

-7.25%

-7.25%

14.65% undervalued

-15.18%

21.92

Construction

2.10%

-9.49%

-9.49%

22.30% undervalued

-15.35%

17.31

Auto-Tires-Trucks

1.20%

-11.17%

-11.17%

23.31% undervalued

-21.67%

11.17

Basic Materials

1.74%

-11.09%

-11.11%

24.56% undervalued

-32.48%

21.32

Oils-Energy

5.59%

-13.61%

-13.61%

25.82% undervalued

-41.32%

20.75

Transportation

2.41%

-11.00%

-11.00%

27.12% undervalued

-32.48%

12.25

ValuEngine.com is an independent research provider, producing buy/hold/sell recommendations, target price, and valuations on over 7,000 US and Canadian equities every trading day. 

Disclosure: None.

Disclaimer: ValuEngine.com is an independent research provider, producing buy/hold/sell recommendations, ...

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