November To Remember - Unprecedented Month In Markets Ends Weak

What else could we use for today...

November was quite a month...

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  • Russell 2000 +11% - best since October 2011
  • Dow +5.5% - best since March 2016
  • US Financial Stocks +14% - best since April 2009
  • Goldman Sachs +23% - best since December 2000
  • US Energy Stocks +9% - best since October 2015
  • FANG Stocks -6.2% - worst since March 2014
  • "Most Shorted" Stocks +11% - best since September 2010
  • US Treasury Bonds (TLT) -8% - worst since January 2009
  • Treasury 'VIX' +18% - worst since January 2015
  • Emerging Market Bonds -4.7% - worst since May 2013
  • Risk-Parity Funds -3.1% - worst since December 2015
  • USD Index +3.8% - best since September 2014
  • Mexican Peso -8.6% - worst since May 2012
  • Japanese Yen -8.9% - worst since August 1995
  • Chinese Yuan -2% - worst since December 2015
  • Emerging Market FX -4.5% - worst since May 2012
  • Gold -8% - worst since June 2013
  • Silver -8% - worst since May 2016
  • Copper +19% - best since March 2009
  • BIS "Fear' Index (Global Basis Swap) -3bps - worst since Feb 2016

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So let's start with stocks...

Despite all the exuberance over oil and macro data today, stocks were not loving it...

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S&P 500 2,200 was defended once again...BUT FAILED... 

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Nasdaq barely eked out a green close in November as Small Caps and Trannies exploded higher... 

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Futures show the real craziness... 

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FANG stocks were really ugly... 

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Banks led the charge (along with energy stocks)... 

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The Dow gained 1000 points in November (only the 4th month ever) but we note that 28% of that move was thanks to Goldman Sachs...

In fact, just 5 names - GS, UNH, CAT, JPM, IBM - account for 50% of Dow gains

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Global bonds had an ugly month... 

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But US Treasuries underperformed... 

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Since Thanksgiving yields are now unchanged thanks to a notable sell-off early today. The nominal selloff deepened in early U.S. trading after Mnuchin on CNBC said U.S. will explore “extending the maturity of the debt”; asked whether 50Y or 100Y bonds would be considered, he said everything would be looked at. 30Y yield rose as much as 14bp to within 1bp of its YTD high 

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Comments were credited with pushing 5s30s curve from session low ~115bp to ~122bp in just over an hour... 

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Still decoupled from bank stock... 

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The USD Index spiked today driven by a collapse in AUD, EUR, and JPY....Notably the USD buying ended when Europe closed. 

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On the month, Yen was the hardest hit (down over 9%) but Cable rallied against the strong greenback... 

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Of course the biggest news of the day was the massive explosion in crude oil prices (soaring 10% to within 10c of $50)... 

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But given that the market got more than it expected, and closed back below $49, one wonders if the squeeze is over... 

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And finally, it does make you wonder if any of that buying was real or just algos playing catch up... 

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Disclosure: None

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