Neck Strain In The Dow
Open to many interpretations, this photo raises questions. The man holding the boy doesn’t look comfortable. The boy the man is holding balances an ominous message.
I chose this photo to illustrate the portentous message our Modern Family has relayed to the market lately.
Last night we wondered whether the new found strength in Biotechnology and those vulnerable antlers will attract the attention of hunters?
The night before we wondered if the Russell 2000, well underperforming the Dow and the S&P 500, will act like the geyser Old Faithful and shoot up reliably or behave more like an old geezer and lie in dormancy?
Now that we have seen new all-time highs in Sister Semiconductors, was that her grand finale?
For consistency’s sake, I often remind you that the division among the family prevails in spite of pockets of market strength.
Is this the end? If so, the end of what?
The Dow or DIA has moved up 15.00 from post Brexit low to Wednesday’s high. Best case scenario is if the runaway gap at 183.80 does not get filled.
Second best case scenario is a 50% retracement which puts DIA down to the 50 DMA at the 179 level. Worst case scenario is if once the Dow breaks 18,000, gremlins appear all over again and passengers have to brace for a hard landing.
The worst case scenario for the Dow should be the best case scenario for the metals. After all, the Fed watcher’s guessing game odds on will or won’t they raise in 2016 stood at 50-50 yesterday. Today, I saw tweets about odds in favor of the rates going negative.
This recent rally reminds me of late 2015 when Nasdaq soared to new highs while the Russell 2000 could not clear the 200 DMA.
Subsequently, my longer term bullish bias in the metals persists. I continue to ponder how easily the Fed could lose control of rising inflation. The timing of that occurring is impossible to predict. However, I am not alone in planning for that inevitability.
Bottom line, this may not be the end of the rally in equities. After all, Biotechnology could just be getting going. Ultra-low interest rates will keep investors buying stocks as the only place where they can park their money.
Nevertheless, our takeaway from the photo is that a market carrying a heavy load will eventually strain its neck. And if the load the market carries bears its own ominous message, everyone’s neck strain intensifies.
S&P 500 (SPY) Not much to be concerned about unless it breaks under 214.00
Russell 2000 (IWM) Consolidation pattern persists. Under 118.83 expect to see selling pressure
Dow (DIA) 187 a target if 183.80 holds
Nasdaq (QQQ) 115 next resistance Support 112
XLF (Financials) 23.60 pivotal and where it closed slightly below. If clears could see 23.80 or higher. 23.20 first line of support
KRE (Regional Banks) 39.60 moving average support to hold
SMH (Semiconductors) All things considered, not a bad correction from new highs
IYT (Transportation) 138.75 big support to hold 143 pivotal
IBB (Biotechnology) Got to 1st target at 280. Now should hold 272 if good
XRT (Retail) A good end of the week is one over 43.75
IYR (Real Estate) Another new high close-expects rates to stay low it seems
ITB (US Home Construction) Consolidating
GLD (Gold Trust) “Back over 126.05 would buy more” Did you?
SLV (Silver) Over 19.05 looks good
GDX (Gold Miners) Now that it held support, a gap over today’s high is probably a buy
USO (US Oil Fund) I would get interested over 10.88
OIH (Oil Services) Held the 50 DMA. Still on watch
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Like to see this clear 22. 21.20 support
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Like the metals, kinda proving the technical patterns other than a bullish phase are not so meaningful
UUP (Dollar Bull) If it ends the week over 25.06 most likely will see even higher
Disclosure: None.