I’m long-term bullish on metals and miners. However, the short-to-medium term picture supports lower prices – especially with what appears to be another failed cycle in gold.

The senior mining index (GDX) resisted today’s decline in gold. I’m not sure what it means just yet…we should know by tomorrow or Monday. Significant upside follow-through would cast a shadow on the bearish case. Whereas, breaking sharply lower would support a decline to new lows.

I added to JDST and DSLV today. The trend is complicated; I may exit these positions quickly if I don’t like what I see tomorrow or Monday.

Expect multiple updates again tomorrow.

US Dollar -  It looks like the ABC correction is over, and the dollar is starting a new cycle higher.

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Gold - Prices broke clearly below the 1-month consolidation zone. Today’s close below the lower Bollinger band also recommends a breakdown. We are 29-days into a cycle that’s been averaging 45-60 trading days. So if this is another failed cycle (becoming likely), prices could trend lower for an additional 3-6 weeks. To validate a failed daily cycle gold must close decisively below $1167.

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Silver - Prices broke but managed to close above the lower boundary. To establish the bearish case, we need to see a sharp decline within the next 1-3 trading days.

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GDX - The strength in the senior ming index was somewhat surprising. I’m not sure what it means just yet. To support a breakdown, prices need to slash through the $18.00 in the coming days. Whereas, closing above the Fed day spike high ($18.83) would recommend a bullish reversal and aid the potential inverse head and should bottoming pattern.

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GDXJ - Juniors didn’t show equal relative strength. Nevertheless, closing back above the $27.75 level would support a bullish reversal. I’ll keep a close eye on things, but for the moment I’m content with my net-short status.

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JDST - I added to my JDST holdings at the open. Price $82.12.

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DSLV - I added to my DLSV holdings at the open. Price $37.42.

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SPY - Closing below yesterday’s low (289.41) would support a correction and potential breakdown.

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WTIC - A lot is going on in the chart. The cycle may have switched to a 29-31 day sequence. I see the potential for a larger degree ABC correction (blue letters) into early November. It’s been 29-days since the August low so we could be close to a top. I’m looking to reenter ERY and SCO either tomorrow or early next week if the price action supports.

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SCO - I may try another trade in SCO. The precise ABC measured move suggest $13.50. If oil is topping the structure may fall short.

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ERY - Prices reached the lower trendline. I’m considering another trade.

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TVIX - I’m also looking at TVIX. If SPY closes below Wednesday’s (Fed day) low – stocks may finally correct. The communication services restructuring beginning October 1st could expedite a stock market selloff. Now, this is pure speculation, but it may be worth entering TVIX for a few days to see what happens next week.

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