Memorial Day EIA Print Unlikely To Hold Largest Injection Of Year

The July natural gas contract gained just 5 ticks in a slow trading session that featured a range of just 3.9 cents on the day. 

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natural gas commodity weather

The prompt month July and December contracts led the way today, with the August contract a bit weaker into the settle. 

natural gas commodity weather

Generally, spread movements were quite small on the day, though, with the M/N July/August spread narrowing a few ticks to settle at the same level we saw on Monday. 

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natural gas commodity weather

As can often be the case in lower demand periods, trading was particularly slow as traders wait for a better indication of current market balance in tomorrow's EIA print. This print is particularly interesting as it historically is the largest injection of the year, thanks in part to demand destruction over the Memorial Day holiday. 

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natural gas commodity weather

Indications are that heat last week was enough to keep the announced injection from being as large as last year's level or the 5-year average. 

natural gas commodity weather

Immediately after the print we will send out our EIA Rapid Release to clients. This includes our summary of the print and expected market reaction, a graphical view to how the print compares to the 5-year average, and our latest balance model which takes our seasonal forecast and overlays it against the implied balance demonstrated from the weekly EIA print and recent print sensitivity to weekly GWDD changes (as seen below). 

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natural gas commodity weather

 

Disclaimer: To begin receiving both our technical and fundamental analysis of the natural gas market on a daily basis, and view our various models breaking down weather by natural gas demand ...

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