Market Talk – August 20th, 2015

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Another very poor performance from Asian equity markets rolled over into Europe and into the US. All Asian markets lost between 1% – 3.5%. In Europe FTSE was the best of a poor bunch only losing 0.6% whilst the DAX and CAC were both down over 2%. The US fared no better with the DOW and S+P both off 1.3% (at time of writing) with the Nasdaq down 2%. The Asian futures markets trading in the US are lower from their close by an additional 1.5% (Nikkei and China), could be an interesting day tomorrow.

The bounce in Gold continues (last seen +$24 at 1152 +1.85%) is providing much needed support for the miners. Silver and Copper both following the rally bouncing 2% on the day. Gold has rallied to our first target resistance level between 1140 and 1155.

The Bond markets were again the main benefactor is what many are describing as a perplexing yield curve play. The front end (2yr notes) were down (+1bp at 0.6625%), whilst 5’s managed just 2bp performance last seen 1.48%. The star performers were the 10’s and Long Bond (30yr) both down by 5.5bp to yield 2.068% 10’s and 2.758% 30’s.

In Europe the rumors are, “More elections in Greece”! Mr. Tsipras has allegedly decided to call snap elections for September 20th – so is the word on the street. As a result the Greek two year note traded lower +135bp to yield 12.79%. Greek 10yr paper was last heard quoted 25bp higher at 9.58%. Other peripherals were also weaker on this uncertainty with Portugal, Spain, Italy and Turkey all lower on the day to core. TY/RX spread last seen +148bp.

In the currency market the DXY (US$ Index) was a little lower at 96.05 (-0.3%) but EM currencies still under pressure with INR down 0.55% and the Russian Rouble falling by another 1% today to close 67.10.

Oil did flirt briefly with the $40 (TWI) but in late trade is seeing a healthy bounce into the close; currently up +1.25%. The spread between TWI and Brent is slightly narrower this evening at $5.80 (TWI 41.30 V’S Brent $47.10).

Disclosure: None.

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