Market In-Review: Dissolving Uncertainty Sets Positive Tone On Markets

Market In-Review: Dissolving uncertainty sets positive tone on markets

  • Eurozone approves Greek reform proposal, dissolving investor concerns
  • Yellen avoids making hawkish remarks at Senate C'tee
  • EURUSD loses 1.6% during week, ending below 1.12
  • European markets finish week in the Green – DAX +3.2%, CAC 40 +2.5%, FTSE 100 +0.45%
  • U.S. markets conclude mixed weekly session

Last week's session encompassed expectations for dissolving uncertainty, as both in sides of the Atlantic expected indication as to where their local agenda is headed. Handing some preliminary indications on things to come, the Euro kick-started last week’s session with some weakness, as Greece’s Syriza experienced some difficulty in submitting its economic reform proposal, aimed at satisfying its international creditors. It seems, however, that the fact that this didn't lead all hell to break loose was enough to reassure markets of European stability. Yields on the Greek 10 year bond lost no less than 62bp during the day. Eventually the Greek did seem to submit their list of economic reforms proposal. The Wall St. Journal even reported on Wednesday that the list submitted "appears to be in line with the principles set out by the Eurozone Finance Ministers". 

With European stability seeming OK, for the foreseeable future, markets turned to the U.S. where Chair Yellen presented before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. Unsurprisingly, with an unclear monetary forecast for Europe, at the moment, Yellen couldn't afford being too specific on the Fed's intentions. Her comments included rather dovish remarks such as saying that when the Fed says it's 'Patient' than that means a rate hike is unlikely to occur for a couple of meetings, as well as rather hawkish ones such as stating that this due rate hike, however, is possible at any meeting. At the bottom line, markets were less worried from an imminent rate hike by the Fed, leading the S&P 500 to gain 0.3% during the day, and the Dow (DIA) to add no less than 0.5%.

Mixed bag of U.S. data

Thursday saw some significant strengthening of the USD, as U.S. core CPI (Ex. Food and Energy) increased by 0.2% month over month; Evidence for the advancing U.S. economy have helped push EURUSD approx. over 1.4% lower, to below 1.12. Subsequent U.S. data, however, was not as promising. This included the weekly Initial Jobless Claims rising to 313K – their highest level for seven weeks. Likewise, Friday saw the U.S. fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product estimate being revised downwards from 2.6% to 2.2%. Positively, this was better than analyst consensus, seeing a mere 2.0%. Moreover, the Chicago Business Barometer Index dropped to 45.8, from 59.4.

On a weekly perspective, U.S. equities were also rather mixed. The S&P 500 index (SPY) lost about 0.3%. The Dow (DIA), on the other hand, concluded with nearly no change, and the NASDAQ (QQQ) actually gained 0.15%. Dissolving expectations for a Grexit and subsequent dissolving of the Eurozone have helped push European markets higher, as the German Dax shined with a 3.2% weekly gain and the French CAC added 2.5%. The FTSE 100, with the U.K. not being part of the Eurozone and all (yes, sometimes that's a negative), added a mere 0.45%.

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