Market Commentary: Markets Open Lower On Last Two Days Of The Year

Written by Gary

Premarkets were down 0.4% at one point with pundits pointing to various reasons, none of which made any sense. Markets opened down 0.2% and traded sideways for the first 15 minutes.

By 10 am the averages were trending down on spurts of heavy red volume, but ultimate session direction remains in doubt.

Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performers at the opening and the session market direction meter is 12 % bullish. We remain mostly conservatively bullish, neutral in other words. Right now now I am getting very concerned any downtrend could get very aggressive in the short-term and any volatility may also promote sudden reversals. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 14.13. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your 'dogs' to the pound.

Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy as market changes are happening everyday. As of now, I do not see any leading indicators that are warnings of a 'long-term' reversal in the near-term. There may be one later in 2015, but any market fluctuations we see now are more of a internal market rectification than a bear market.

Investing.com members' sentiments are 63 % Bearish.

Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 54.7 % bullish with the status at BearConfirmed. (Chart Here ) I expect a market reversal at or before ~25.0 should the markets start to descend.

StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at 37.56. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at54.15 %. (Chart Here) The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 2011 was the last time we saw numbers in the 20's.

StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 59.63. (Chart Here) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash.

StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 75.40. (Chart Here) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction.

StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 21.70. (Chart Here)Flattening Yield Curve Signaling Slowing Economic Growth?

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 72.67. (Chart Here)

Chris Ciovacco says, "As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy." This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.00 / 62.75 (and staying there) should be of a great concern to bullish investors.

StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 10,954. (Chart Here) Markets move inverse to institutional selling. We are above the resistance (10,301) but is this a test of the next resistance (triple top) at ~11,900, watch to see if these numbers decline back down. Next stop down is 10600, 9750, then 9250, and 8500.

The longer 6 month outlook is now 40-60 sell and will remain bearish until we can see what the effects are from the oil slide, ECB and the U.S. Fed possibly triggering a deflationary slide. Investors should employ the first thing one learns while in a foxhole; keep their head down.

The DOW at 10:15 is at 17986 down 53 or -0.29%. (Historical High 18,103.45)

The SP500 is at 2084 down 7 or -0.34%. (Historical High 2,093.55)

SPY is at 207.96 down 0.75 or -0.36%.

The $RUT is at 1216 down 3.43 or -0.28%.

NASDAQ is at 4789 down 18 or -0.37%. (Historical High 5132.52)

NASDAQ 100 is at 4295 down 19 or -0.43%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 15.75 up 0.71 or 4.71%Bullish to Neutral Movement

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been net positive and the current bias is down and trading sideways.

WTI oil is trading between 53.91 (resistance) and 52.72 (support) today. The session bias is neutral, trending higher and is currently trading down at 53.85(Chart Here)

Brent Crude is trading between 57.93 (resistance) and 56.76 (support) today. The session bias is neutral, trending higher and is currently trading down at 57.91.(Chart Here)

Gold rose from 1182.58 earlier to 1201.74 and is currently trading down at 1197.90. The current intra-session trend is elevated, trending sideways(Chart Here)

Dr. Copper is at 2.839 down from 2.852 earlier. (Chart Here)

The US dollar is trading between 90.65 (highest since 2006 and 80 to ~90 is a very substantial resistance) and 90.11 and is currently trading down at 90.12, the bias is currently trending down(Chart Here) Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support. This support has gotten much stronger since August, 2014 and isn't likely to fall easily. The next resistance is at ~88.85 set in June, 2010.

 

No content is to be construed as investment advise and all content is provided for informational purposes only.  The reader is solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security ...

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