Market Commentary: Markets Open Down, Recover To Flat Status, Expected To Melt Down

Written by Gary

Premarkets were down -0.3% as expected along with a lack of 8:30 am US financial reporting. Markets opened in a similar manner quickly moving from -0.05% to -0.3% in the first 3 minutes on moderate volume.

By 10 am the markets were just in the green on low volume and then leveled off and sea-sawing in the flat and lackluster zone. I suspect we will see more losses before the end of this session.

US Syrian airstrikes seem to effect Europe more than the US as French CAC is down 1.93%, the London Stock Exchange 'Footsie' down 1.74% and the German DAX down 1.33%.

If past market performances hold true, we will see another days of negative results and then another surge upwards.

The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening and the short-term market direction meter is bullish. We remain mostly, at best, neutraland conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned significantly and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am getting very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at +6.71. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.

Investing.com members' sentiments are 75 % Bearish and it seems to be a good sign for being bullish. The 'Sheeples' always seem to get it wrong.

Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 57.9 % bullish with the status at BearConfirmed. (Chart Here )

StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 62.62. (Chart Here) Very close to support and now flattening.

StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 71.40. (Chart Here) Remains just above support and now pausing.

StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 25.51. (Chart Here)Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.

StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -58.23. (Chart Here)But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 67.46. (Chart Here) Testing support.

Bottom line here is that I have not seen any serious bears jumping out of the woods just yet, although I am VERY concerned that ANY minor correction could turn nasty in a heart beat. One significant signal would be daily losses in any of the major averages that go over the 'magic' 3 % and then you need to pay close attention to risk-off tactics. There hasn't been a 10% correction in several years and some investors are becoming increasingly concerned an imminent correction is on the way.

Sometime in the future, there will be another three percent drop, only it will go to four, recover somewhat and the BTFDers will cry halleluiah and buy again. Only this time it doesn't recover fully like in the past and drops again, increasing the net drop to seven percent and so on.

Investors are currently unhappy, unenthusiastic, skittish and ready to jump ship every time it nudges against a small financial iceberg. They remain long for now unable to afford to sell and live off cash savings that have negative real rates thanks to the Feds. They feel in their guts, correctly, that a real 'correction' is coming and can't do anything about it until it is too late. Greed rules the day and investors should be very cautious.

The DOW at 10:30 is at 17155 down 19 or -0.11%.

The SP500 is at 1993 down 2 or -0.09%.

SPY is at 198.93 down 0.19 or -0.11%.

The $RUT is at 1130 up 0.83 or 0.07%.

NASDAQ is at 4526 down 2 or -0.03%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 4058 down 3 or -0.07%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 13.98 up 0.29 or 2.12%Neutral Movement

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been neutral and the current bias is flat and mixed.

WTI oil is trading between 91.70 (resistance) and 90.78 (support) today. The session bias is very volatile and trending up and is currently trading up at 91.63(Chart Here)

Brent Crude is trading between 97.59 (resistance) and 96.57 (support) today. The session bias is net negative and is currently trading up at 97.02(Chart Here)

The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.

Gold fell from 1235.62 earlier to 1220.28 and is currently trading down at 1222.40. The current intra-session trend is negative(Chart Here)

Dr. Copper is at 3.037 falling from 3.064 earlier. (Chart Here)

The US dollar is trading between 84.80 and 84.46 and is currently trading up at84.72, the bias is currently neutral and volatile(Chart Here)

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