Market Commentary: Markets Open Down, DOW Off Triple Digits, SP500 Below 100 DMA

Written by Gary

Premarkets were down -0.3% and opened the same way. The DOW and NASDAQ slipped below its 50 DMA and the SP500 dropped below the 100 DMA and is testing it. Closing below this would signal more weak sessions to come.

By 10 am the volume has fallen off to very low, market is quiet and more weakness is foreseen.

Having said that, it is 60% likely the markets will close higher than where they are now. The morning reaction to the bad print of the US ISM Manufacturing coming in at 56.6, down from 59.0 will not last.

The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening and the short-term market direction meter is neutral. We remain mostly, at best, neutraland conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned significantly and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am getting very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains below zero at -2.74. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.

Investing.com members' sentiments are 72 % Bearish and it seems to be a good sign for being bullish. The 'Sheeples' always seem to get it wrong.

Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 53.3 % bullish with the status at BearConfirmed. (Chart Here )

StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 56.50. (Chart Here) Below support zone and apparently going further down. Next stop ~57 and then ~44, below that is where we see the markets crash.

StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 67.40. (Chart Here) In support zone and testing.

StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 24.23. (Chart Here)Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.

StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -50.64. (Chart Here)But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 66.14. (Chart Here)

Chris Ciovacco says, "As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy." This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50should be of a great concern to bullish investors.

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at 47.07 %. (Chart Here) Unless this downward trend reverses itself soon, we are going to see further downside

The DOW at 10:15 is at 16905 down 136 or -0.80%. (the Dow is only up 2.2% in 2014)

The SP500 is at 1960 down 13 or -0.64%.

SPY is at 195.74 down 1.30 or -0.66%.

The $RUT is at 1094 down 8 or -0.70%. (the Russell is now down -5.5% on the month and -4.5% on the year)

NASDAQ is at 4452 down 41 or -0.91%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 4013 down 37 or -0.91%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 16.79 up 0.47 or 2.88%Bearish Movement

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net negative, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is negative.

WTI oil is trading between 92.25 (resistance) and 91.22 (support) today. The session bias remains negative from yesterday's plunge and is currently trading down at91.91(Chart Here)

Brent Crude is trading between 95.46 (resistance) and 94.54 (support) today. The session bias remains negative from yesterday's plunge and is currently trading down at 95.22(Chart Here)

The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.

Gold rose from 1205.28 earlier to 1218.60 and is currently trading up at 1217.20. The current intra-session trend is positive(Chart Here)

Dr. Copper is at 3.015 falling from 3.048 earlier. (Chart Here)

The US dollar is trading between 86.29 and 85.88 and is currently trading up at86.01, the bias is currently negative and volatile(Chart Here) Resistance made in Aug., 2013 has been broken.

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