Less Is More In This Market

My Swing Trading Approach

Similar to yesterday, I will take a very cautious approach with this market. Less is more in this market and I do not want to rapidly increase my long exposure with such incredible uncertainty. Only under very bullish circumstances today, will I add additional long exposure to my portfolio.

Indicators

  • VIX - Still in the coil. Almost broke out to the upside yesterday, but gave it all up before the close, to finish in the red. Currently 15.90. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading below their 40-day moving average): Tested the rising trend-line off of the February lows yesterday and held. Still a strong decline of 6%, to close at 45%. 
  • Moving averages (SPX): Broke the 200-day moving average intraday, but held on at the close. 

Industries to Watch Today

Materials improving in recent days to form a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern. Technology also holding up well recently, but still in a multi-week coiling pattern. Staples needs to be avoided at all costs. Its chart is extremely bearish. Financials on the verge of a breakout, while Energy maintains its bull flag pattern. 

My Market Sentiment

The bulls staged a massive rally yesterday, when all looked lost, to hold the 200-day moving average. Price action continues to contract and get tighter in the long-term picture. Recent tests of the 200-day MA have led to hard market bounces thereafter. 

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

(Click on image to enlarge)

swing trading strategy report 194

Current Stock Trading Portfolio Balance

  • 3 Long Positions

Click here to download my Allocation Spreadsheet. 

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