Large Cap Best & Worst Report - September 30, 2014

​Our top scoring stocks in our weekly large cap report from 1 year ago (10/1/2013) have returned an average 19.85%, outpacing the SPX by 71bps. The best performers have been X up 99%, MU up 92%, RCL up 77%, and GILD up 73%.

  • Healthcare is the top scoring large cap sector.
  • The best scoring large cap industry is railroads.

**IMPORTANT** Scores have rolled to reflect the shift to Q4 seasonality.

The average score across large cap is 62.11 this week, below the four week moving average score of 63.56. The average large cap stock is trading -11.57% below its 52 week high, 0.44% above its 200 dma, has 4.79 days to cover held short, and is expected to post EPS growth of 13.15% next year.

Healthcare and services score above the large cap universe average this week. Consumer goods, financials, technology, and industrial goods score in line. Basic materials and utilities score below average.

The top scoring large cap industry is railroads (CSX, KSU, UNP, NSC). Total U.S. rail carloads are 4.5% higher in 2014 year-to-date than in 2013. Drug wholesale (MCK, ABC, CAH) is high scoring thanks to healthcare reform driven script growth; ageing America, and solid generic drug pricing. Healthcare plans (WLP, UNH, HUM) are attractive heading into the second open enrollment period. In the first open enrollment period, over 7 million new members signed up through exchanges. Another 8 million new members signed up through Medicaid. Oil and gas pipeline capacity expansion supports pipeline WMB revenue and dividend growth. Internet information providers (YHOO, FB, EXPE) are high scoring on ad revenue growth.

Oil & gas pipelines, ag chemicals (DD, CF), and major chemicals (SHW, APD, DOW) score best in large cap basics. Textiles (NKE, UA, VFC, PVH, HBI), processed & packaged food (GMCR, MJN, CAG), and major food ADM are top scoring in consumer goods. Focus on asset managers (AMP, BLK, PFG, IVZ), investment brokers (SCHW, GS), and credit services (MCO, DFS, ADS) in financials. The best scoring healthcare groups are healthcare plans, biotech (GILD, CELG, BMRN, REGN, MDVN, BIIB), and drugmakers (ABBV, AGN, RDY, SHPG, UTHR). Only aerospace/defense (GD, NOC, LMT, BA) scores above average in industrial goods. Concentrate on rails, drugs wholesale, and restaurants (BKW, CMG, DRI) in services. Internet information, diversified communication LVLT, and technical & system software INFY score best in technology.

 

Disclosure: None.

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