July To Start Hot, But Nat Gas Not Excited

Weather forecasts over the weekend were mostly mixed, with our Morning Update showing some cooler trends in the short-term and hotter trends in the long-term. 

natural gas commodity weather

In our Pre-Close Update on Friday these were exactly the model changes we forecast over the weekend. 

natural gas commodity weather

In fact, in our Morning Update the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts were both just a single GWDD higher than we had forecast they would be back on Friday, as we saw both the short-term cool and long-term hot trends play out. 

natural gas commodity weather

Yet even with this heat July natural gas prices reversed off the $3.05 level they gapped up to last evening, which was the focus of our Friday Note of the Day. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

natural gas commodity weather

That's what played out, and the July natural gas contract ended up settling down a couple percent on the day. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

natural gas commodity weather

Natural gas traders are similarly still digesting a bearish EIA report last week that was quickly shaken off. Looking forward to this week's EIA print, Dominion Transmission (DTI) reported an injection that was the same as the past week at 10 bcf, indicating a similar injection in the East is likely to be announced. 

natural gas commodity weather

 

Disclaimer: To begin receiving both our technical and fundamental analysis of the natural gas market on a daily basis, and view our various models breaking down weather by natural gas demand ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.