July To Start Hot, But Nat Gas Not Excited
Weather forecasts over the weekend were mostly mixed, with our Morning Update showing some cooler trends in the short-term and hotter trends in the long-term.
In our Pre-Close Update on Friday these were exactly the model changes we forecast over the weekend.
In fact, in our Morning Update the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts were both just a single GWDD higher than we had forecast they would be back on Friday, as we saw both the short-term cool and long-term hot trends play out.
Yet even with this heat July natural gas prices reversed off the $3.05 level they gapped up to last evening, which was the focus of our Friday Note of the Day.
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That's what played out, and the July natural gas contract ended up settling down a couple percent on the day.
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Natural gas traders are similarly still digesting a bearish EIA report last week that was quickly shaken off. Looking forward to this week's EIA print, Dominion Transmission (DTI) reported an injection that was the same as the past week at 10 bcf, indicating a similar injection in the East is likely to be announced.
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