How Low Will S&P 500 Q4 Growth Go Due To Downward Revisions In Energy Names?

Despite decent results thus far across many of the sectors, Q4 EPS growth for S&P 500 companies dipped to 5.1% today, from 5.4% yesterday. The decline primarily has to do with downward revisions to energy companies, with a majority of oil, gas and consumable fuels names having yet to report. The energy sector has fallen to -19.2% expected growth from -17.9% just yesterday.

Now moving on to some of the the most recent results. Last night, eBay (EBAY) posted Q4 EPS of $0.90, just what we were expecting here at Estimize, although revenues of $4.92B were a bit light. This is the strongest EPS figure reported since the company IPO’d in 1998, and represents 11% YoY profit growth, with revenues up 9%. Good results were overshadowed by the announcement that the company intends to cut 2,400 jobs, or 7% of its global workforce and by comments from CFO Bob Swan who said “It’s going to get a little bit worse before it gets better.” Swan alluded to decline in traffic and an online auction ecosystem that has been disrupted. The PayPal spinoff was also a point of interest, with layoffs planned to take place before that happens later this year. Despite some the negative sentiment, the stock is still up nearly 5% today.

Verizon (VZ) results came in before today’s opening bell, EPS was in-line with the Wall Street expectation, but  missed Estimize by $0.05. Revenues of $33.2B were stronger than the street or Estimize anticipated. The EPS miss pushed overall profit growth for the telecom sector down to 13.1% from yesterday’s 17.7%. Keep in mind there are only 6 stocks in the sector, so a large miss by a company the size of Verizon will have an increased impact. Verizon stock is down 2.5% today.

Later today and tomorrow we get results from two of the most watched restaurant chains, Starbucks (SBUX) and McDonalds (MCD). The Estimize community is looking for Q4 EPS of $0.81 from Starbucks tonight, a 14% YoY increase. Revenues of $4.77B are expected to be up almost as much, with 12.5% growth. The company already turned in great a same store sales figure of 5% in Q4, the 19th consecutive quarter that global same store sales have been above 5%. A recent drop in coffee futures could also mean expanded margins for the company. CEO Howard Schultz has outlined an aggressive expansion plan over the next 5 years. Starbucks currently owns and operates 21,366 stores in 65 countries and plans to increase by 30k by 2019. A lot of that development will be in the Asia Pacific region, with the target of doubling the China store count where the consumer base is rapidly growing, despite an overall softening of the Chinese economy.

McDonald’s report will be out before tomorrow’s opening bell and the expectations aren’t great. Both Estimize and the street are looking for EPS of $1.21, which would indicate a nearly 14% drop YoY. Revenues of $6.72B are not faring much better, down 5% from the year-ago quarter. Continued hardships with food quality and food chain supply in China are expected to be mentioned again this quarter. The fast food giant also continues to lose market share to casual dining names such as Chipotle (CMG) and Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD),  as well as other fast food companies like Sonic (SONC) and Wendy’s (WEN).

How are we doing?

Expectations for S&P 500 earnings growth for the fourth quarter stand at 5.1%. Revenues are anticipated to come in with 1.2% growth.

Leaders

Earnings:

Health Care (21.3%). Notable industry: Biotechnology (59.3%)

Telecommunication Services (13.1%).

Information Technology (12.3%). Notable industry: Semiconductors (30.2%)

Revenues:

Health Care (7.9%). Notable industry: Biotech (37.5%).

Information Technology (7.0%). Notable industry: Semiconductors (14.8%)

Laggards

Earnings:

Energy (-19.2%). Notable industry: Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels (-20.3%)

Financials (-3.0%). Notable industry: Banks (-4.6%)

Materials (-2.7%). Notable industry: Paper & Forest Products(-17.5%)

Revenues:

Energy (-13.6%). Notable industry: Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels (­-15.8%).

Materials (-0.9%). Notable industry: Paper & Forest Products (­-18.2%).

Beat/Miss/Match

Earnings: With 30 S&P 500 companies reporting thus far, 55% have beaten the Estimize consensus, 35% have missed and 10% have met. This is compared to Wall Street estimates, of which 71% of companies have beat on the bottom­-line, 16% have missed and 13% have met.

Revenue: 48% have beaten the Estimize consensus, while 52% have missed. For revenues, 59% of companies have beat the Wall Street estimate, while 41% have missed.

Disclosure: There can be no assurance that the information we considered is accurate or complete, nor can there be any assurance that our assumptions are correct.

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