Has The Market Provided Comfy Cushions Or False Bottoms?

Yesterday, we imagined the chair as the market.

Despite what many believe as impossible odds, the market sat, although somewhat precariously, near the record highs.

The water that streamed down, representing the market’s chance of slipping, instead collected inside a fountain.

The rockledge that offered the chair enough leverage to resist the water’s gravity, turned into flagstone support.

The hat hanging on the back of the chair representing investors, now sits comfortably atop the cushions.Sister Semiconduictors, A.K.A Wonder Woman continues to leap tall buildings in several bounds. Nasdaq 100 continues to consolidate near its new all-time highs.

The Dow nodded and moved briefly above 212 establishing its new all-time high.

The S&P 500 still has not “launched” from 240, but it has certainly snapped.

Yesterday, I wrote that I do not mind sitting in that chair. However, I required a cushion for my bottom.

I then asked, “How thick does the ideal cushion have to be to offer our bottoms more support?”

The two crucial cushion bearers showed up today. We added a few more cushions just for fun.

The Russell 2000 or the small cap companies located and operating throughout the U.S. that personify the Family’s Granddad, showed up today as a considerable cushion.

That critical sector rotation is what the market needs to prove faith beyond what the tech and FANG stocks have already achieved.

As the lining of the cushion, IWM cleared 140.

Despite Comey’s testimony, a disorganized government and lack of follow-through enacting campaign promises as the Congress is about to recess for the summer, IWM mimics confidence in the U.S. economy.

Of course, this rally in the Russell’s could signify the beginning of the 5th Stage of Disbelief. I am sticking to my call for a dramatic top when all is said and undone, rather than a milquetoast one.

Nevertheless, yesterday I wrote that “If the Russell’s are the lining of the cushion, then the Transportation sector is its stuffing.”

Transportation (IYT), foundation of infrastructure, has as the top 5 stocks in its basket, FedEx, Norfolk Southern, Union Pacific, United Parcel Service and Alaska Air group.

As company names suggest, all are essential in moving goods, services and people.

Today, IYT barely stuffed the cushions, although it has cleared the pivotal 168 level.

In order for our market throne to provide enough balanced support, IYT must now clear 170. Then, the chance of a rally to around 176 looks reasonable.

If IWM is the lining and IYT the stuffing of the cushion, we could say that the Financials are the fringes. Regional Banks, another Modern Family sib, gained over 3% to head back into an unconfirmed bullish phase.

Undoubtedly, piling on too many cushions could make everything tumble. After all, Retail might kick the legs right out from under the chair.

As we end the week I leave you with this question: Has the Market provide us with comfy cushions or false bottoms?

S&P 500 (SPY) The launch from 240 (unless it breaks) put 245-246.50 as a target before Bollinger band resistance sets in.

Russell 2000 (IWM) With a monthly channel top at 142-143 level, the test to those highs seems more likely than not. So for now, on alert if this fails 137.50, otherwise, thinking more up.

Dow (DIA) 211 pivotal

Nasdaq (QQQ) Consolidation near the highs

KRE (Regional Banks) Got new life over 53.55 today. Now in an unconfirmed bullish phase.

SMH (SemiconductorsYes, another new high.

IYT (Transportation) 168 pivotal number. Then there’s still resistance all the way up to 172.89.

IBB (Biotechnology291-292 must hold and the elusive 300 must clear.

XRT (Retail) 40 massive support to hold. 41 pivotal.

IYR (Real Estate) Held all the moving averages but still in massive consolidation between 77 and 81.

XLU (Utilities) 53.50 area near-term support.

GLD (Gold Trust) 121 pivotal. 124.50-125.50 next big resistance

SLV (Silver) If holds 16.50, a move over 16.75-80 would clear 200 DMA and bode well for further even bigger gains

GDX (Gold Miners) Marginally broke the 200 DMA and 6-month calendar range at 23.50.

XME (S&P Metals and Mining) Cleared 30 so could get interesting

USO (US Oil Fund) Follow through to the downside and still not oversold

TAN (Solar Energy) Cleared 18.60 now support

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Retracting from the 200 DMA and possibly topping out ahead of FED

UUP (Dollar Bull) 25.00 pivotal, see more downside if breaks unless it gets back over 25.10

Disclosure: None.

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.