When traders get to the point they consider embroidering a bejeweled bull on their vintage necktie, does that mean the top is near?

Look at this bull. He has eyes of fire, a forehead of diamonds, a crown of rubies and horns and a head of gold. Over the top? Ya think?

After a week of writing about fissures that lead to tsunamis and provide shelter for sun-basking lizards, this bling has my brown eyes squinting.

With the end of the week upon us, perhaps the Dow has stalled before pushing beyond 19,000. Perhaps the Nasdaq 100 can confirm that its rejoined the others in their bullish phases.

Perhaps Granddad Russell 2000 can close on new all-time weekly highs.

Perhaps the S&P 500 can clear its August high 219.60. And, perhaps not.

Will our bejeweled bull find a rhinestone cowboy to ride it?

The answers lie in three places.

First, the durability of two Modern Family Sectors.

Second, the duration of the Ecstasy high.

Third, the next move by the Federal Reserve.

Two of the Modern Family sector bulls require a rodeo rhinestone cowboy to ride them. Plus, our cowboy must wear a diamond glove on his dominant hand so he can hang on for longer than 8 seconds.

Biotechnology (IBB) maintains a bullish phase. However, it underperformed the indices and some of his siblings. IBB needs to clear this week’s high or it could be the first to get a post-ecstasy hangover.

Granny Retail, giving credit where credit is due, roared above the major daily moving averages this week. Yet, if you look at the longer timeframe charts, she needs to close out the week over 46.00. Otherwise, Granny’s run could be nothing more than a run into a wall of resistance.

How do we assess the duration of the Ecstasy’s impact? Best answer-looking for the classic signs of a top. An island top, blow-off top, a confirmed reversal candle, double or triple tops or a phase change are the typical signs we look for.

Lastly, The Federal Reserve, although taking a backseat lately, still holds some cards.

Sure, the market assumes a rate hike next month. A quarter-point should have little impact. But what if they do a half-point interest rate hike? Given the recent euphoria, the Fed could easily step up as the market buzzkill.

A final footnote about yesterday’s topic: DryShips: After writing that “I would like to see commodity prices respond with even a modicum of the same optimism,” today the stock DRYS fell from Wednesday’s peak price of $100 down to a low of $10.81. It settled at $11.00.

Borrowing once gain from the song Wooden Ships by Crosby, Stills & Nash, “Horror grips us as we watch you die..”

S&P 500 (SPY) 218 still the pivotal point 219.60 August all-time high

Russell 2000 (IWM) 129.10 pivotal.

Dow (DIA) 188.82 a pivotal support level

Nasdaq (QQQ) 117.25 pivotal support now that this has an unconfirmed bullish phase

KRE (Regional Banks) 50 key support

SMH (Semiconductors) 70.21 October high and today’s high-double top?

IYT (Transportation) 2 inside days-important to watch here for a possible break to the downside

IBB (Biotechnology) 280 support 290 pivotal and 300 big time resistance

XRT (Retail) 44.50 pivotal area. 46.00 substantial resistance

IYR (Real Estate) Unless it breaks 72.11 still working a reversal pattern

GLD (Gold Trust) In bear flag mode unless it can back over 117 and hold

USO (US Oil Fund) A weekly close over 10.50 would be promising

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 123 now pivotal with 120.15 point to hold

UUP (Dollar Bull) 26.25 good chart resistance