True, since 10,000 years ago back in 2009, the market has had a bullish run. And, our Rallysaurus, way older, certainly merits us heeding the “GENTLE” advice.

Musical? Perhaps better interpreted as the “musical” chairs the varying indices and sectors have engaged in all year.

Better yet, the musical chairs the pundits have engaged in. Bullish at the top. Bearish at the bottom. Melt up, melt down.

In our quest to determine this week’s final destination, with one day left, we have evidence to support a Thelma and Louise ending for our Rallysaurus.

Equally, we have evidence that after surviving a couple of car wrecks, the Modern Family (chauffered by the Rallysaurus) will continue to enjoy a longer ride.

Does the evidence for one outcome outweigh the evidence for the other?

One of my favorite go to’s is the notion of Terror at 18,000 in the Dow. I came up with this notion a year ago when I saw The Simpson’s Halloween episode “Terror at 5 ½ Feet.”

Since June 2016, when the Dow finally cleared 18k and rallied to over 18,600, it has tested the 18k area several times and held.

Today, it briefly broke below. However, with no gremlins on the wings of the plane, the Dow once again took flight. Slowly, gently, but nonetheless gained in altitude.

The best evidence for the indices avoiding further price deterioration lies with whether or not the Dow can continue to trade above 18,000.

The best evidence for the indices to crash land lies with the Russell 2000. Now in a confirmed warning phase, IWM either has to prove it can hold up and at the least close out the week over 122. Otherwise, we are looking at the very real possiblity of a move down to 113-114 or where the 200 DMA sits.

As for the sectors, I turn to Granny Retail (XRT). Granny flushed out many longs when she fell below the 200 DMA. Yet, with the determination to head back to the mall for the holidays, Granny closed only slightly below it.

With Retail Sales on tap and strong seasonality in play, Granny could save the day. Look for XRT to hold today’s lows. Then, if XRT clears back over the 50 DMA-expect the pundits to scream melt up all over again.

On the flip side, watch our poor Big Brother Biotechnolgy. IBB has already corrected 10% from the high it made in September at 300.00. It may have found enough buyers to keep it from declining further.

Nevertheless, should IBB break 270 or worse, close out this or next week below 264, hello Thelma and Louise!

So go ahead and play that funky music. But play it gently. For this Halloween season, the ghoul who spins the ominous fugue can suddenly reappear at any time.

S&P 500 (SPY): We may have seen a reversal bottom. But it will require a confirmation. 214 now resistance.

Russell 2000 (IWM) 120 pivotal with 122 good place to clear/close above

Dow (DIA) T-E-R-R-O-R if breaks and closes under 180

Nasdaq (QQQ) 117.35 the 50 DMA-resistance for now and way better if clears

KRE (Regional Banks) Unconfirmed phase change to warning. 42.00 pivotal

SMH (Semiconductors) Held the 50 DMA which is the best sign of all if continues to do so.

IYT (Transportation) Held the 50 DMA which is lower at 142.55-another good sign for the bulls if continues to hold

IBB (Biotechnology) Eh

XRT (Retail) 43.25 key pivotal support area

IYR (Real Estate) 77.30 pivotal area for a weekly close

GLD (Gold Trust) Not enough to get it over the 200 DMA

GDX (Gold Miners) 23.75 area resistance to clear and close above

USO (US Oil Fund) 11.35 pivotal point on closing basis.

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) 20.00 pivotal-over 21 better

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) If holds 133 could go to 140

UUP (Dollar Bull) 25.14 gap low to hold or could see a move back down to 24.85