Gather Ye Rosebuds Before The Market Flies Multiply

mdaily-20161128

Trying to keep flies from eating your roses can be a bit frustrating. However, unless an infestation occurs, the situation is more annoying than seriously concerning.

The day back after the holiday weekend, and many of the channel tops we warned about coming into this week attracted a fly.

The TLT (20+ Year Long Treasury Bonds) chart from the weekend worked right on cue. TLTs rallied off that clean floor or the price level of the bottom of the channel that sits around 118.55-119.

The Russell 2000 (IWM) rallied last week exactly to the top of a channel at 134. We came in this week with a big focus to see if IWM clears and fails the channel, just fails the channel or holds and digests.

After Monday’ session, a case for a failure emerged. However, after a record 14 straight sessions of gains, the fly eating the IWM rosebud at 134 could be more of an annoyance than a serious concern.

Regardless, interest-rate sensitive instruments like gold, the US dollar-and soft commodities moved in accordance with both the TLT rising and the Russell 2000 falling.

Is it time to merely deadhead or bring out the insecticide?

After Black Friday and Cyber Monday, makes sense to track the retail sector as a measure of the economy’s health.

Online shopping through Amazon (AMZN) disappointed. That stock dropped 2%. Upscale mall chains such as Michael Kors (KORS), Nordstrom’s (JWN) and Macy’s (M) all fell between 1-2.5%. Furthermore, JC Penney (JCP) and some of the discount stores like Ross (ROST) and TJ Maxx also declined.

Granny Retail or the ETF XRT, has my attention. After a potential reversal pattern off new 2016 highs last week, today’s action points to a confirmation of that.

Even so, none of today’s moves lower means that our one fly has plans to invite over his friends for more flower munching. Yet if he does, those friends could very well come from a biotech lab.

The Biotechnology sector (IBB), although still in a bullish phase, has work to do as the big brother of our Modern Family. In other words, IBB must bounce to attract more speculative buying all around.

Rounding out the family, Regional Banks (KRE) may have posted its own reversal pattern. Semiconductors (SMH) has more of the makings of a consolidation than a reversal near all-time highs. If SMH holds up, that will help the overall market.

Transportation’s (IYT) big swing area sits at the 160 level. With two days left of trading in November, should the one fly eating the rosebud sate, that level will hold. However, should this month end under the 160-price point, prepare.

Instructions to keep flies away from your buds say to make the buds unpleasant. Reduce mulch and manure. Deadhead and remove withering buds. If necessary, spray insecticides but with the caveat of lasting toxicity.

In trading terms, at these first signs of a correction, scale back the number of trades you buy and the number of shares you purchase if you must buy. You may consider standing aside until new trades emerge.

Most of all, before you take out the fly swatter (liquidate), or pepper your positions with potentially toxic shorts, assess whether the pests are more of an annoyance than a lethal blow to your portfolio. Patience and strategy as always, are key.

S&P 500 (SPY) Possible low volume reversal. 221.50 pivotal 223 resistance 218.95 support

Russell 2000 (IWM) Went exactly to the top of a channel on the daily to 134. 131.40 the fast-moving average which if fails, a correction to 126 not out of the question.

Dow (DIA) 190.50 super pivotal area and a good place to gauge next move depending upon where November closes.

Nasdaq (QQQ) 118 now pivotal support 119.75 resistance

KRE (Regional Banks) 50.00 major support. Also a possible strong volume correction in the works.

SMH (Semiconductors) 70.40 pivotal support to hold or not for the end of this month

IYT (Transportation) Important this month-a close above or below 160.00

IBB (Biotechnology) 278.50 area the 50 DMA to hold or trouble

XRT (Retail) Confirmed reversal from the high Friday. 45.80 pivotal

IYR (Real Estate) If interest rates ease more, could see move to 76.95.

GLD (Gold Trust) Through 114 could see some buyers as could have a reversal today.

GDX (Gold Miners) 21.25 pivotal.

USO (US Oil Fund) 10.80-10.00 range to break

TAN (Solar Energy) 18.00 big point to clear on a closing basis

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 121.40 now pivotal support. I hope you got the head’s up on the channel wrote about for 3 days.

UUP (Dollar Bull) 26.25 resistance-25.80 support.

Disclosure: None. 

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Chee Hin Teh 7 years ago Member's comment

Thanks for sharing