US Final GDP is a key release and is published each quarter. GDP reports measure production and growth of the economy, and are considered by analysts as one the most important indicators of economic activity. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.

Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

US Final GDP is the final of three GDP reports. Traders should pay close attention to this GDP release, as an unexpected reading could quickly affect the direction of EUR/USD.

Preliminary GDP, which preceded Final GDP, posted a gain of 1.9% in Q1. This was short of the estimate of 2.1%. The estimate for Final GDP for Q1 stands at 2.0%.

Sentiments and levels

Euro-zone numbers have improved, allowing the ECB to tilt to the hawkish side. As well, the markets are heartened that Macron is favored to win the French election. In the US, the Fed expects to raise rates only twice more in 2017, and President Trump suffered a major setback with his healthcare proposal. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on EUR/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.0870, 1.0830, 1.0775, 1.0660, 1.0630 and 1.0520

5 Scenarios

1. Within expectations: 1.6% to 2.4%: In such a scenario, EUR/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
2. Above expectations: 2.5% to 2.9%: An unexpected higher reading can push the pair below one support line.
3. Well above expectations: Above 2.9%: A strong reading would likely boost the dollar, and the pair could break below a second support line as a result.
4. Below expectations: 1.1% to 1.5%: In this scenario, EUR/USD could push above one resistance level.
5. Well below expectations: Below 1.1%. A poor reading could result in the pair breaking above a second resistance line.

For more on the euro, see the EUR/USD forecast.