EU Session Bullet Report - USD mixed as rally lost momentum

USD continues to be weak into the Asian session especially against commodity currencies and GBP. Versus EUR, JPY and CHF it still manages to sustain some losses. The recent USD rally has lost momentum, despite reassurances from FED members that interest rates will likely rise in the US in December. It seems that the market has now priced in this fact, and risk could be to the downside for the USD with any comment or news that might put this probability in jeopardy. It seems that market participants are relatively unsure about the timing of another hike. And because of that, the dollar index is facing some pressure ahead of 100.39 key resistance level.

There are no major U.S. data to be published today, only PMI existing home sales, however Fed speakers including Bullard, Dudley and Williams are expected to talk. As December ‘liftoff’ seems to be possible, the potential indications of the pace of tightening next year and beyond would be focused. Today, speech by ECB President Draghi and other Executive Board members, including Coeure, Praet and Constancio is expected. Germany and EZ release PMI numbers.

Trading Quote of the day: “Buying Gold Is Just Buying a Put against the Idiocy of the Political Cycle. It’s That Simple!” Kyle Bass

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Green lines are resistance, Red lines are support.

EUR/USD

Pivot: 1.067

Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.067 with targets @ 1.0765 & 1.081 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.067 look for further downside with 1.062 & 1.056 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is well directed.

GBP/USD
Pivot: 1.524
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.524 with targets @ 1.5335 & 1.536 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.524 look for further downside with 1.519 & 1.5155 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.

AUD/USD
Pivot: 0.715
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.715 with targets @ 0.722 & 0.725 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.715 look for further downside with 0.7115 & 0.707 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.

USD/JPY
Pivot: 123.2
Likely scenario: Short positions below 123.2 with targets @ 122.6 & 122.35 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 123.2 look for further upside with 123.4 & 123.75 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bearish.

USD/CAD
Pivot: 1.331
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.331 with targets @ 1.325 & 1.3225 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.331 look for further upside with 1.334 & 1.337 as targets.
Comment: The RSI lacks upward momentum.

USD/CHF
Pivot: 1.0175
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.0175 with targets @ 1.0115 & 1.0075 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.0175 look for further upside with 1.022 & 1.025 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is badly directed.

GOLD
Pivot: 1077
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1077 with targets @ 1090 & 1094.5 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1077 look for further downside with 1070 & 1064 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.

OIL
Pivot: 41.5
Likely scenario: Short positions below 41.5 with targets @ 40 & 39.2 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 41.5 look for further upside with 42.25 & 43.3 as targets.
Comment: As long as 41.5 is resistance, likely decline to 40.

DAX
Pivot: 10865
Likely scenario: Long positions above 10865 with targets @ 11250 & 11330 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 10865 look for further downside with 10765 & 10675 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.