EIA Print Bullish Enough For Strong May Expiry

The Energy Information Administration announced that last week we pulled 18 bcf of gas from storage, beating out our estimate of 11 bcf and indicating a market that is still marginally tighter than we had expected. 

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natural gas commodity weather

The result was a strong expiry for the May natural gas contract, which went off the board with a pop and expired more than a percent above its settle yesterday. 

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natural gas commodity weather

The entire strip rallied, but gains were strongest at the front into expiry following this larger-than-expected draw. 

natural gas commodity weather

The result was a May/June K/M contract spread expiry that was the second narrowest since 2012. 

natural gas commodity weather

Right away we saw the print as supportive of this market into expiry, alerting clients afterwards in our EIA Rapid Release that it was slightly bullish overall. 

natural gas commodity weather

Our Morning Update had similarly identified that the May contract could try and move above $2.8-$2.82 with a net implied flow more bullish than -15 bcf. 

natural gas commodity weather

Overall, though, this grind up in prices has been relatively slow, and later contracts have struggled to join in as we have seen spreads like the May/October K/V spread narrow dramatically. 

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natural gas commodity weather

Headed into the weekend then traders have this EIA print to sort through as well as the strong May expiry and indications of the first sizable cooling demand coming with a brief shot of warmer air across the country later next week.

Disclaimer: To begin receiving both our technical and fundamental analysis of the natural gas market on a daily basis, and view our various models breaking down weather by natural gas demand ...

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