EIA Print Bullish Enough For Strong May Expiry
The Energy Information Administration announced that last week we pulled 18 bcf of gas from storage, beating out our estimate of 11 bcf and indicating a market that is still marginally tighter than we had expected.
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The result was a strong expiry for the May natural gas contract, which went off the board with a pop and expired more than a percent above its settle yesterday.
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The entire strip rallied, but gains were strongest at the front into expiry following this larger-than-expected draw.
The result was a May/June K/M contract spread expiry that was the second narrowest since 2012.
Right away we saw the print as supportive of this market into expiry, alerting clients afterwards in our EIA Rapid Release that it was slightly bullish overall.
Our Morning Update had similarly identified that the May contract could try and move above $2.8-$2.82 with a net implied flow more bullish than -15 bcf.
Overall, though, this grind up in prices has been relatively slow, and later contracts have struggled to join in as we have seen spreads like the May/October K/V spread narrow dramatically.
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Headed into the weekend then traders have this EIA print to sort through as well as the strong May expiry and indications of the first sizable cooling demand coming with a brief shot of warmer air across the country later next week.
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