The headline durable goods order is exceptional but nearly the entire rise is new aircraft orders.

The Census Bureau's Advance Durable Goods Report shows durable goods orders jumped 2.6%. The entire jump was due to aircraft orders. The best news in the report was an upward revision to the February numbers.

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased $6.4 billion or 2.6 percent to $254.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up four of the last five months, followed a 3.5 percent February increase. Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged. Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.8 percent. Transportation equipment, also up four of the last five months, drove the increase, $6.4 billion or 7.6 percent to $91.4 billion.

Shipments

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in March, up ten of the last eleven months, increased $0.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $250.0 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent February increase. Transportation equipment, up four of the last five months, drove the increase, $1.5 billion or 1.8 percent to $83.4 billion.

Revised February Data

Revised seasonally adjusted February figures for all manufacturing industries were: new orders, $499.3 billion (revised from $498.0 billion); shipments, $500.0 billion (revised from $500.5 billion); unfilled orders, $1,144.7 billion (revised from $1,142.8 billion) and total inventories, $675.1 billion (revised from $675.2 billion).

New Orders

• January: $240.095B -3.6%
• February: $248.574B +3.5%
• March: $254.947B +2.6%

New Orders Excluding Transportation

• January: $162.073B -0.3%
• February: $163.586B +0.9%
• March: $163.534B +0.0%

Transportation Equipment New Orders

• January: $78.022B -9.8%
• February: $84.988B +8.9%
• March: $91.413B +7.6%

Motor Vehicles and Parts New Orders

• January: $56.609B +0.2%
• February: $57.719B +2.0%
• March: $57.748 +0.1%

Nondefense Aircraft New Orders

• January: $10.446B -27.9%
• February: $14.535B +39.1%
• March: $20.997B +45.5%

Key Points

1. Excluding transportation, there was only one good month this quarter.
2. Airplanes and autos are the only drivers of durable goods. Looking ahead, autos are suspect.
3. Aircraft has extremely long lead times and will not factor into GDP for 2018.