Dow At 20k: Land Of 1000 Delights

mdaily-20161213

When we saw this holiday window dressing at Saks Fifth Avenue, I could not decide if I should photograph or lick it. After all, the Land of 1000 Delights intends on stimulating all our senses.

Like the minty fresh taste of peppermint candy, the Dow made yet another new all-time high today. Like the mannequin donned in fabulous designer wear, the market is dressed to kill.

Janet Yellen, her own brand of fashion plate, will light up the airwaves tomorrow after the FED announces their interest rate policy.

From February until July 2015, the Dow had a similar milestone to the current 20k milestone. During that time, 18,000 had investors lined up to gawk at the window to much higher levels.

The Fed though, clearly states policy. They look for steady economic growth, a strong labor market and rising inflation levels. They look at housing numbers, net exports and business fixed investments.

Between February and July 2015, the Fed saw the Dow flirt with 18k. Yet, they kept rates between 0 and ¼ percent. Until December.

Confident that economic activity would continue to expand, the labor market would remain robust and inflation levels would rise to the expected 2%, they raised the federal funds rate to ¼-1/2%.

Therefore, we wonder. Will Janet bring the market more lollipops and another 1000 delights or just a seasonal window shopping experience?

As of November 2016 before the election, business fixed income remained soft. Inflation stayed below target. The Fed stayed put.

However, the buzz now with the Dow near 20k and a new administration henceforth is for an economic reflation.

The next inflation rate update is scheduled for release Thursday, December 15, 2016 at 8:30 a.m. ET. It will offer the rate of inflation over the 12 months ended November 2016. A telling number for sure.

I’m certain I am not alone in thinking about the Fed and any possible political motivation in their setting policy. Rest assured conspiracy theorists, not true.

The market will have the inflation number the day after the FOMC minutes are released. Beforehand, Janet will appear live with comments. What will she wear? Red or pink? Green like the Christmas Grinch?

In August 2015, investors in mass exited the 18k in the Dow party. In a deja vu all over again backdrop, investors will now decide if they should or should not leave the Dow party at 20k.

Besides the interest rate sensitive instruments, it pays to keep eyes on the Russell 2000, the Regional Banks and Transportation sectors. All paused over the last two days yet held their ground.

Should the pivotal support areas listed below breakdown, Land of 1000 Delights could easily become Death by 1000 Cuts.

S&P 500 (SPY) 227 is pivotal support and S1, which it has not broken since December 1st.

Russell 2000 (IWM) 134-134.50 pivotal support to watch.

Dow (DIA) Hard to believe that today could be a blow off or a runaway gap. Either case, what fun! 198.68 area big number to hold

Nasdaq (QQQ) 119.65 now point to hold if good

KRE (Regional Banks) 54.40 pivotal support.

SMH (Semiconductors) 2 tops in 3 days at 72.70. Resistance or new launching point

IYT (Transportation) 166 support

IBB (Biotechnology) Unless this clears 275, could see move to 240

XRT (Retail) A break of 45.50 would be where the real fun begins.

IYR (Real Estate) Early November this had a reversal off the lows. A dovish Fed could have this playing catch up

GLD (Gold Trust) Over 111.35 would be interesting

SLV (Silver) A weekly close over 16.35 bullish

USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day. 11.35 closest support

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Too soon to say bear trap-but that’s what I am watching for

UUP (Dollar Bull) 26.34-25.80

Disclosure: None. 

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.