Breakout In Miners
The action in miners today is very telling. Prices gapped up and sliced through resistance like a hot knife through butter. Unless there is a catastrophic reversal, the odds of a final crash into an 8-year cycle low are rapidly depreciating.
Miners are overbought on a short-term basis, but they may continue to rise as investors chase and shorts cover. I will look to buy the dips going forward. A price correction to the 20-day EMA should be a good entry point for long-term positions.
Gold and Silver are less overbought and may be the better play at this time. However, I want to see how prices react the employment numbers tomorrow before taking positions. The consensus is for 183,000 jobs generated in December. A number less than 150,000 should send metals higher, whereas, a number greater than 220,000 could send them sharply lower.
-HUI- The HUI gapped through major resistance where the neckline and downtrend lines meet, an extremely bullish sign. The odds of dropping further into an 8-year cycle low are quickly fading.
I will begin a buy the dips strategy. Primarily looking to enter or add to positions during corrections to the 20-day EMA.
-GDX- Prices exploded through the neckline at $22.50 and continue to rally. Unless there is a catastrophic reversal tomorrow or Monday after the employment numbers, it looks like $18.58 is a major bottom and that the bull market has resumed.
-GDXJ- The junior miners also gapped through their downtrend line and also exceeded the $35.26 high. Prices are short-term overbought and may react at the 200-day MA. It would take prices closing back below the $33.60 level to keep the 8-year cycle forces alive.
Gold is 13-trading days into the current common cycle. Common cycles average between 20-28 trading days between lows. Therefore, we can expect the next buying opportunity to arrive sometime between January 16th and January 26th.