First off, thank you Geoff Bysshe, President of MarketGauge.com, for filling in during my time off!

This photo represents one of the many delights of our vacation. Watching ducks in Central Park submerge their bills into the water in search of food strikes me as the perfect metaphor for my return!

Especially since doing so, requires the ducks to thrust their heads in the water, raise their tails in the air and keep their back feet paddling. Thus, eating puts them in compromising positions!

I left for vacation just as the market also demonstrated some vulnerablity.

Nevertheless, feasting prevailed as the dip was eagerly met with enthusiastic buyers!

The Economic Modern Family gave us some early clues.

Transportation or IYT, cleared back into a bullish phase after leading the market down in mid-August.

Once IYT confirmed back to Bullish, the other Modern Family ducks quacked in kind.

Sister Semiconductors (SMH), proves ducks can fly.

Granddad Russell 2000 (IWM), although not on new all-time highs, has donned a down coat and now trades right near the top of the channel on a monthly chart.

All this pond fun begs the questions:

How long will the food supply last?

How will sitting ducks recognize when camouflaged duck hunters show up?

IWM or the Russell 2000 made a high of 144.25 the week ending July 31st.

That is key. Not only does that number match the top of the rising channel on the monthly chart, it sits as a beacon for either a new leg up or the possibility of a double top if it cannot clear.

Pay attention to price!

Furthermore, looking at the weakest sector-Granny Retail (XRT), the price rose right into resistance. 41.55 is a huge point to clear.

Likewise, 40.50 is pivotal support with 40.00 the ultimate price to hold before the market sees brick and mortar misery once again.

Regional Banks, or our Prodigal Son (KRE), is in a bearish phase. Perhaps not the most important sector for market leadership, KRE does signify a weakness in activity in borrowing and lending for community banks.

Another key price point to note-In Trans or IYT, there is a small gap to fill at 173.38 from the low in July 18th.

To fill or not to fill? If the gap is filled, expect like a duck, a calm market even if the feet go crazy below.

If the gap is not filled, this rally will begin to look more like a duck’s waddle than an easy swim.

Semiconductors began the week with a runaway gap possibility. (Same for the Dow-DIA)

That means it gapped up to new all-time highs. This too is key. If the gap confirms, even reluctant sectors in the Family should hold.

However, should SMH gap below 91.65 or today’s low, an island top possibility will look as scary as a hunter pointing his rifle at a flock of ducks in the air yelling, “Pull!”

Note: Tuesday, I will post the link to a Facebook Live video instead of commentary. Even if you do not have FB, you can still access the video with the link.

S&P 500 (SPY) Nothing particularly scary here, unless it fails 248.50

Russell 2000 (IWM) 144.25 big resistance. 141 pivotal support.

Dow (DIA) Runaway gap unless this fails 222.67 with a gap down

Nasdaq (QQQ) With SPY and DIA making new highs, this closed red. 146.59 the all-time high to clear if good

KRE (Regional Banks) The 50-DMA resistance to clear here is 53.35

SMH (Semiconductors) If it looks like and quacks like a duck-and its flying, it’s this sector!

IYT (Transportation) See above about the gap

IBB (Biotechnology) Modern Family member that has daily chart support at 330 that should hold or could see 320

XRT (Retail) This miraculously held the 80-month Moving average. Now, can it see it way back over 42?

IYR (Real Estate) Interest rate sensitive which means a lot rides on the Fed speak this week

XLU (Utilities) Dropped down to the 50-DMA support. 53.90 key support

GLD (Gold Trust) Healthy dip close to support around 122-123

SLV (Silver) 15.95 key to hold if this is still good

GDX (Gold Miners) My fave of the metals at this point. Like this dip and looking to add to a long from much lower levels

USO (US Oil Fund) Recovery Phase accelerating as I see it

XLE (Sel Energy Spdr Fd) I’d rather be in the commodities part than the stocks. But this looks okay with resistance at 67.00 key

OIH (Oil Service Holders) I like this sector better than XLE. Through 25 should continue higher

TAN (Solar Energy) High volume reversal pattern possible. Not a good time to go long if late to the party.

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Held the 50-DMA today which makes sense ahead of FED

UUP (Dollar Bull) It was oversold. Now, would not sell unless it rallies to 24.20-28 and fails or breaks under 23.30

FXI (China) Potential breakaway gap