The September natural gas contract continued gradually lower today, settling a bit less than a percent down. 

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The entire curve sold off today, with later contracts actually selling off more than the prompt month contract. 

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One of the catalysts for this move are expectations that heat under-performs over the next two weeks, as we had outlined for clients in our Morning Update. 

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Also as expected, production declined today to start the month, and that combined with strong cash prices led to an AM rally that we had warned clients about, but we noted that a weak strip made that a strong opportunity to gain short exposure.  

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The price action today thus fit in well with our morning expectations, though it was interesting to note the strip only deteriorate further through the day. The result is that the October/January V/F spread actually narrowed on a day where the prompt month contract rallied almost a full percent.  

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Attention now turns to tomorrow's EIA print. We are expecting a larger injection than last week as GWDDs ticked back lower week-over-week. 

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In our Afternoon Update, we broke down our natural gas price action expectations into tomorrow's EIA print, as well as weather's role in that price action and what tomorrow's print should hold. Immediately after the print, as always, we'll release our EIA Rapid Release that puts the print in historical context, looking at tightness to last year and the 5-year average as well as our updated end of storage season estimate and price action expectations off the print. This is just one example of how we combine the latest weather and market analysis to keep you one step ahead of the natural gas market.