2016’s Bond Market Rollercoaster In Charts

Credit investors have been taken on a wild ride this year. From the lows after Brexit when $13 trillion of sovereign bonds traded at negative yields, to the Trump inspired bond sell-off, few could have predicted what was in store for credit heading into the year.

As Goldman’s credit analysts observe in their year-end credit research round-up, 2016 has been a year of extremes for credit investors. To commemorate (or celebrate) the fact the year is over, the bank’s credit team has picked out the 20 charts they believe best summarize 2016’s extremes. Here are just five of the best along with Goldman’s commentary.

2016’s Bond Market Rollercoaster In Charts

“Strongest risk reversal since the crisis. From the trough on February 11th to the peak on October 25th, HY returned a remarkable 25%, representing the largest and fastest recovery since the crisis (see Exhibit 1). HY spreads also tightened by 427bp over this span with more than half of the move fueled by the Energy and Metals and Mining sectors. After the HY market lost 4.6% last year (the worst performance in 15 years, ex-recession), this year’s 16.4% total return is the best since 2009 and has only been superseded 5 times in the past 30 years. The numerous dips experienced throughout the year (i.e. Brexit, the US election, and the post-election rates selloff) have been met with stable capital commitment from foreign and domestic participants, alike.”

Bond Market Rollercoaster

“IG yield backup in November was the largest post-crisis. As 10-year US Treasury yields increased by 53bp in November, IG yields backed up by 43bp, the largest monthly move since the crisis and the 5th largest in the past 2 decades, when excluding recessions (Exhibit 4). At the same time, IG spreads managed to tighten in November, driving a wedge between IG yields at the wide end of their post-crisis history (in the 65th percentile) and IG spreads at the very tight end (in the 12th percentile).”

Bond Market Rollercoaster

“HY defaults reached a post-crisis high; we expect a steady decline in ‘17. As of the end of November, the 12-month trailing issuer-weighted US HY default rate reached 5.6% according to data from Moody’s, the highest level since mid-2010 and a significant increase from the post-crisis low of 1.6% reached in September 2014.”

Bond Market Rollercoaster

“EUR-denominated IG corporate bonds, or 16% of the EUR IG iBoxx index, yielded less than 0%. This share has since retreated to 6.8% as EUR credit has lagged the post US election rally. Still, before the ECB’s intervention, hardly any corporate bonds had negative yields, much less a new issue, as this year marked the first time investors had to pay corporate borrowers, such as Henkel and Sanofi, to issue debt.”

Bond Market Rollercoaster

“The share of HY bonds trading at a price below $80 has fallen dramatically from post-crisis highs of 26% in mid-February to just 4.8% currently (Exhibit 5). While the wide tail of the yield distribution has all but vanished—with only $11.8 billion or a touch over 1% of the HY market yielding double-digits, down from a 13.6% share at the end of last year.”

Disclosure: This article is NOT an investment recommendation, more

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.