U.S. Concrete: The GDP Rally Fully Reverses

Getting a second opportunity at a great set-up is rare in the stock market, but U.S. Concrete (USCR) may be offering just such a second chance.

On September 3rd, I lamented missing an opportunity to buy USCR when it neatly tested support at the top of its last trading range. The headline reason for the surge that confirmed support was a strong revision in the Q2 U.S. GDP report that showed much larger growth for non-residential fixed investment. In my related post, I scrutinized the GDP driver relative to U.S. Concrete and was left unconvinced. The stock market seems to agree as it completed a reversal of the post-GDP surge.

U.S. Concrete (USCR) revisits a critical line of support formed by the top of the last trading range. Investors and traders reversed the June breakout once again.

U.S. Concrete revisits a critical line of support formed by the top of the last trading range. Investors and traders reversed the June breakout once again.

I checked USCR’s behavior against the other infrastructure stocks pegged for post-GDP rallying: Vulcan Materials (VMC), Martin Marietta Materials (MLM), Summit Materials Inc (SUM), and Eagle Materials (EXP). VMC and MLM completed their own reversals on Wednesday and seemingly confirmed that GDP effect was misunderstood by traders. Yet, SUM and EXP are still holding on to the majority of their gains. EXP looks particularly interesting because the post-GDP rally led to a breakout above resistance at its 200-day moving average (DMA). That breakout was quickly confirmed.

Eagle Materials (EXP) confirmed a bullish breakout above 200DMA resistance.

Eagle Materials confirmed a bullish breakout above 200DMA resistance.


Source: FreeStockCharts.com

EXP has a very diversified market as it serves segments across cement, concrete and aggregates, gypsum wallboard, recycled paperboard, and oil and gas proppants. So the reason for EXP’s resilience may go beyond infrastructure; the persisting rally may even have roots in expectations for hurricane recovery. I will be keeping a closer watch on EXP in coming weeks and into its next earnings report on or around October 24th.

USCR’s gyrations are also loosely correlated with hurricanes Harvey and Irma. USCR has small operations in both impacted areas: Houston and the U.S. Virgin Islands. I have not seen any word or press release from the company providing a damage assessment. The U.S. Virgin Islands is of particular concern given descriptions of complete destruction (from CNBC):

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