Twitter’s Only Problem Is Its Perception

Twitter’s Only Problem is its Perception

Twitter’s(TWTR) stock has been on a massive roller coaster since its IPO in November 2013. While the recent stock price of $48.91 is 9% higher than its initial IPO price, that’s after hitting a high of $74.73 and plummeting to a low of $29.51. All in the last 15 months. The biggest reasons for the ups and downs were user growth and net income. Twitter was able to allay fears on the revenue and income side with its recent quarterly report, at least temporarily. But it’s likely that sluggish user growth remains will continue to plague Twitter shares. In fact, some bears are already looking for another downswing.

But here’s the thing: Twitter’s problem isn’t an issue of growth, it’s an issue of perception. At the end of 2014, Twitter announced two big numbers. The first was that its revenues rose a whopping 97% year-over-year to $479.1 million. The second, is that its monthly active users grew 20%, lower than the 23% it grew during the prior quarter and the 22% analysts had forecast. But despite what the bears think, there’s no reason to assume Twitter isn’t worth it.

Growth problem, you say?

According to an article on Quartz, Twitter’s revenue growth actually outpaced Facebook’s (FB) and LinkedIn’s (LNKD) over similar stages of their development. The same goes for user growth. I think the biggest reason why analysts and investors put an asterisk on this information is that Twitter still isn’t quite as mainstream as Facebook, which has about five times as many monthly active users.

But there’s one thing Twitter has a leg up on the competition, and that’s its popularity with non-users. For example, it isn’t uncommon to see tweets in news articles online or even on television during sports broadcasts, awards shows, and the news. This isn’t something you’ll see from Facebook, LinkedIn, or any other social media network for that matter.

As it looks to monetize those embedded tweets, it can look to YouTube for an example. The video streaming site owned by Google (GOOG) has videos all over the Internet and is able to monetize them with short advertisements. If able to successfully monetize that portion, the sky is the limit.

Mark Cuban’s Stamp of Approval

Last week in an interview on CNBC, billionaire investor and entrepreneur Mark Cuban shared his thoughts on Twitter. “I think Twitter has issues. I think Twitter is a revenue goldmine. I think that is a reflection of the fact that people don’t fully understand what Twitter is anymore. Twitter is here to stay,” Cuban said. He went on to say that Twitter is no longer just a social media network, but the new “PRNewswire”. He also said that it offers “the best search engine, bar none to get current information.”

Twitter’s trending feature has definitely had a massive influence on recent movements, including the #BlackLivesMatter hashtag in response to alleged police brutality in the United States, along with the #BringBackOurGirls movement to shine a light on Nigerian terrorist organization Boko Haram. Twitter’s platform is an invaluable way for the everyman to keep abreast of the important local, national and world news on a real-time basis.

Jim Cramer: It’s all about potential

Jim Cramer, host of CNBC’s Mad Money, isn’t shy about his opinions, and he’s never even-keeled about it. According to Cramer, Twitter is worth a fortune, it just needs to find a better way to monetize. While this means Cramer isn’t particularly sold on the company’s current valuation, he understands its potential. So far the company is going in the right direction on this. Despite the slowing user growth, timeline views grew 23%, engagements rose 78%, and ad revenue per user grew from $1.77 to $2.37. According to Statista, Facebook’s ad revenue per user in 2014 sat at $8.25, so Twitter certainly has a ways to go in terms of potential, but a 60% increase in the fourth quarter is a great sign.

 

TWITTER PERCETTION GRAPH

 

Conclusion

Twitter is currently overvalued from a fundamentals perspective. It’s hard to compare its P/E ratio of 60.94 with Facebook’s 30.62, and not wonder what’s wrong with that picture. But to say that Twitter is dying, that it’s never going to recover from its current funk, or that it isn’t worth investing in, is to say that you simply don’t understand the company. Twitter is here to stay, and not only that. It’s here to compete.

Disclosure: None

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.