The middle of August is distinct for its lack of distinction. The typical routine usually will include back to school shopping and vacations for families, or the beach for adventuresome singles. This year, the public gets the treat of being privy to the once every four years occurrence of the Olympics, held in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil. The competition and stories from these games have been wonderful and more than make up for the substandard planning and lack of concern for the health of athletes and spectators. Par for the course for the International Olympic Committee.

In the financial world, the monthly retail sales number for July came in flat, softer than a projected .5% increase.  The notable number in the release was the strength in online sales, no doubt driven by Amazon’s Prime day.  

It seems the biggest beneficiaries of the back to school season have been the beaten down department stores as the heavyweights in the sector reported mostly better than expected earnings. The famous quip, ‘Retail is detail’, may not be as applicable today with the ease of use of technology to click, click, and have whatever you want sent to you.  

Still, retail has been crushed for the last year so when Macy’s (M), Kohl’s (KSS), Nordstrom (JWN), and JC Penney (JCP) revealed they won’t go out of business in the next few days, their stocks jumped a bit. Macy’s disclosure that they will close 100 stores by early 2017 is consistent with the idea there is too much capacity in the industry, a deflationary environment. The Fed policy of keeping interest rates low for as long as possible is the strategy used to fight this circumstance, as well as the commodity bust.  Make no mistake, the department store industry will continue to work at improving their online presence, but even with excellent merchandising, competing with Amazon (AMZN) has been, and will continue to be a major challenge.

Alibaba, (BABA) the e-commerce behemoth in China, reported a huge increase in revenue (59% to $4.8 billion) and operating profit (71% to $1.2 billion).  With over 400 million users, the gross merchandise value showed an increase of 24% and Baba’s emerging cloud business also displayed plenty of promise.  As a proxy for the domestic Chinese economy, the idea China is falling off the table is just plain wrong. Yes, commodity based industries still suffer from overcapacity, but China is not the only member of this club, as we have seen.  

In the oil sector, the IEA predicted 2016 global demand will grow only 1.2 million barrels per day, below the normal 1.5 million yearly growth average. While U.S. production stays between the 8.0-8.5 million barrel per day figure, trending downward I might add, the major heavyweights in OPEC, Saudi Arabia and Iran continue to pump as if there is no tomorrow.  Of course, with their dependence on oil as the entire funding mechanism for their populations, their competition for Middle East dominance extends to the energy market.  As such, it appears the long awaited rebalancing in the oil market has a target date of 2017.  

Much depends on whether demand will be stronger than what the IEA predicts, and on how much US production falls off. The comparison of huge depletion rates, in the neighborhood of 50%, versus the efficiency of horizontal fracking makes the U.S. number a question mark as well. Energy has been a tough one to figure out, and it remains tough, which is why there is opportunity.

 Donald Trump made his fame and fortune as a builder of gold plated buildings in the best locations of New York City and other cities all over the globe.  Over the course of the last few weeks, in contrast, his primary job description has been one of a grave digger, specifically, his own. The obvious reference here is his dwindling poll numbers in comparison to the always honest and professional Mrs. Clinton. Many Republicans are abandoning ship and preparing to try and save the Senate, and more importantly, the House of Representatives.  

Financial prognosticators see the hospital and alternative energy sectors benefiting from a Clinton win. Banks and carbon based energy areas will face an uphill battle, especially if Republicans cannot hold the house. The building and defense industries should be in pretty good shape with increased infrastructure and defense appropriations.  

Still, the contrarian in me thinks the duck, oops, digger, that is Donald is being written off so badly that in such a meaningful position like, well, the President of the United States, it is a bit too early to hand the keys to the plenty flawed Mrs. Clinton. One would think an intelligent human being would learn from the mistakes made in the primary contests.  It appears Mrs. Clinton has followed Churchill’s advice far more than the digger with respect to campaign infrastructure and preparation.  With the debates rapidly approaching, Republicans and Mr. Trump better hope the country’s underlying thirst for change is far greater than what the current polls indicate.